Brentford vs Chelsea: three draws in a row meet early goals
Brentford vs Chelsea opens the fifth round of the Premier League season on Friday night at the Gtech Community Stadium, and it brings together two sides whose first month has followed a script that repeats almost week to week. Brentford have scored the first goal in all four of their league matches and have drawn each of the last three. Chelsea have scored inside the opening seven minutes in all four of theirs, and have conceded at least twice in every one. At least one of those patterns is under threat at 20:00 on Friday.
Chelsea arrive sixth on seven points, one place and one point above Brentford. Both are unbeaten at home in the league.
Brentford: always ahead, rarely winning
The opening weekend was the exception. Brentford beat Tottenham 3-0, with goals from Keane Lewis-Potter, Vitaly Janelt and Michael Kayode and twenty-six shots against nine. Since then the pattern has been the same three times. Kevin Schade put them ahead at Leeds and Dominic Calvert-Lewin equalised on seventy-nine minutes. Janelt put them ahead against Sunderland and Enzo Le Fée equalised from the penalty spot on eighty-two. Schade scored first again at Bournemouth last Saturday, Brentford fell 2-1 behind, and Schade’s long-range equaliser made it 2-2.
Six points from four matches, no defeats and a goal difference of plus three put Brentford seventh. Schade has three of their seven league goals. The worrying number is the second-half one: three of the four goals they have conceded arrived after the break, and at Bournemouth they faced twenty shots, ten of them on target, and needed eight saves from Caoimhín Kelleher to leave with a point.
Chelsea: fast starts, open matches
Chelsea have scored early in every league match. João Pedro scored in the first minute at Fulham, Romeo Lavia on four minutes against Brighton, Morgan Rogers after two minutes at the Emirates and again after seven against Hull City last weekend.
The defending has been the opposite. Chelsea won 3-2 at Fulham, beat Brighton 4-3 with 25.6% of the ball, lost 2-1 at Arsenal after leading, and drew 2-2 with Hull after leading. They have conceded nine league goals, and their opponents have put twenty-six shots on target against them, the joint-highest total in the league alongside Ipswich Town and Crystal Palace. João Pedro and Rogers have three league goals each, Cole Palmer two.
- Brentford: seventh, 6 points, 7 scored and 4 conceded; scored first in all four league matches
- Chelsea: sixth, 7 points, 10 scored and 9 conceded; scored inside seven minutes in all four
- Brentford’s last three league matches: 1-1, 1-1 and 2-2, all after taking the lead
- Chelsea have conceded at least twice in every league match this season
- Top league scorers: Kevin Schade 3 (Brentford); João Pedro 3 and Morgan Rogers 3 (Chelsea)
What the match turns on
Something in the patterns has to break, because both sides cannot score first. If Chelsea do it inside seven minutes again, Brentford will be chasing a match for only the second time in the league this season; the only other time they fell behind was at Bournemouth, and they recovered within four minutes.
If Brentford score first, the question becomes whether they can hold a lead against a side that has scored ten league goals in four matches. They have led in all four league matches and won one of them. Chelsea, meanwhile, have led in all four of theirs and won two.
The two sides also play in a similar way. Brentford have had 46.7% of the ball on average but have taken sixty-eight shots, the third-highest total in the league. Chelsea average 44.3% of the ball and have taken sixty. Neither side has needed possession to create chances.
Brentford’s home record adds another layer. They beat Tottenham 3-0 and drew 1-1 with Sunderland at the Gtech Community Stadium, and they have conceded only one league goal there. Chelsea’s away record is a 3-2 win at Fulham and the 2-1 defeat at the Emirates.
Brentford have a Carabao Cup third-round tie at Reading on Tuesday 15 September before this. Chelsea are already through to the fourth round, having beaten Leeds United 6-3 at Stamford Bridge on 9 September, so they arrive with the longer rest.
Simulate the match before kick-off
Two sides that keep scoring first and keep failing to close matches out are hard to call. Run Brentford vs Chelsea through the AI simulator on this site as many times as you like before Friday night, and see how often the early goal decides it.
- Run this fixture through the AI match simulator, in tactical view or in the physics arena
- Simulate this week’s Carabao Cup third-round ties, including Reading against Brentford
- Play the remaining 34 rounds from the real table and the real fixture list
- Open the line-up builder for both clubs before you kick off a simulation
- Turn an arena simulation into a vertical video ready to share
"Brentford have scored first in every league match. Chelsea have scored inside seven minutes in every one. Only one of them can score first on Friday."