Nottingham Forest vs Coventry City: no home goals, no points

Nottingham Forest vs Coventry City at the City Ground on Saturday evening is a match between a side still waiting for its first home league goal and a side still waiting for any league goal at all. Forest have played two league matches at home, a 1-0 defeat by Leeds United and a goalless draw with Tottenham, and scored in neither. Coventry have played four league matches, lost all four and scored in none. Forest are eleventh on five points after winning at Aston Villa last weekend; Coventry are bottom with nothing, and they travel without Taiwo Awoniyi, who is suspended after his red card against Brighton.

The suspension has an extra edge: Awoniyi is a former Forest player, and the ban means he will not face his old club.

Forest: a first win, from the road

Forest’s season began with that 1-0 home defeat by Leeds, settled by Anton Stach on eighty-eight minutes. A week later they drew 2-2 at Anfield, where Dan Ndoye and a Morgan Gibbs-White penalty twice gave them the lead. Then came the goalless draw with Tottenham, and last Saturday a 2-1 win at Villa Park, with Liam Delap scoring in the first minute of the second half and the substitute Igor Jesus winning it on eighty-eight.

That victory was built on volume: twenty-two shots, seven on target. It was the first time this season Forest had put more than three shots on target in a league match. Defensively they have been solid, conceding twelve shots on target in four matches, the fourth-fewest in the division. All four goals they have conceded arrived in the second half, two of them from the eightieth minute onwards. Forest are out of the Carabao Cup after losing 2-0 at home to Leeds in the second round, so they have no midweek fixture.

Coventry: shots, but no goals

Coventry’s league record is four defeats, ten goals conceded and none scored: 3-0 at Arsenal, 1-0 at home to Hull City, 1-0 at Manchester City and 5-0 at home to Brighton last Sunday. They have taken forty-one league shots and put thirteen on target, and six of those came against Brighton, when Bart Verbruggen saved every one of them.

Awoniyi’s dismissal against Brighton, for violent conduct, carries a three-match ban, and the visit to Forest falls within it. Coventry play a Carabao Cup third-round tie at home to Aston Villa on Wednesday 16 September first. They have at least scored in that competition this season, winning 4-2 at Plymouth Argyle in the second round.

• Nottingham Forest: eleventh, 5 points, 4 scored and 4 conceded; no goals in two home league matches
• Coventry City: twentieth, 0 points, 0 scored and 10 conceded in the league
• Forest won 2-1 at Aston Villa last weekend with 22 shots
• Coventry have conceded three league goals from the 80th minute onwards
• Taiwo Awoniyi (Coventry City) is suspended after his red card against Brighton

What the match turns on

On paper, Forest have a chance to break their home duck against the only side in the league without a point. But the paper has been unreliable for Forest at the City Ground this season: against Leeds they had 55.2% of the ball and two shots on target, and against Tottenham they managed two shots on target again.

Coventry have created chances without converting them, and they have not held out once they have conceded. They have trailed at some point in all four league matches, and they have not led in a single minute of league football. At the Etihad, with 22.4% of the ball, they still lost only 1-0.

The early goal matters here more than most. Forest have scored first in two of their four league matches, and Coventry have never recovered from falling behind. If Coventry can keep the game goalless into the second half, Forest’s own record of conceding every league goal after the break will become part of the story.

Kick-off is at 17:30 on Saturday. Forest have had the full week to prepare; Coventry will have played Aston Villa three days earlier.

Simulate the match before kick-off

A side yet to score at home against a side yet to score at all is one of the stranger fixtures of the round. Run Nottingham Forest vs Coventry City through the AI simulator on this site and see how often the first goal of Coventry’s league season arrives.

• Run this fixture through the AI match simulator, in tactical view or in the physics arena
• Simulate this week’s Carabao Cup third-round ties, including Coventry City against Aston Villa
• Play the remaining 34 rounds from the real table and the real fixture list
• Open the line-up builder for both clubs before you kick off a simulation
• Turn an arena simulation into a vertical video ready to share

"Forest need a first home league goal. Coventry need a first league goal of any kind."