Forest vs Tottenham: Spurs are bottom and have not scored

Tottenham Hotspur are bottom of the Premier League with no points and no goals. Nottingham Forest are fifteenth with one point, and that point came at Anfield. They meet at the City Ground on Saturday afternoon in a fixture that is far more urgent for the visitors than the table alone conveys.

Spurs have lost 3-0 at Brentford and 2-0 at home to Newcastle. The second of those is the one that should worry them, and also the one that offers the only real encouragement available.

Seventeen shots, six on target, nothing

Against Newcastle last weekend Tottenham had 57.5% of the possession, seventeen shots and six on target. Newcastle had eleven shots, two on target, and won 2-0 through Anthony Elanga on sixty-two minutes and Yoane Wissa on seventy-two.

That is not a side incapable of creating chances. Six shots on target at home is a perfectly normal attacking afternoon, and most weeks it produces at least one goal. What it says instead is that Tottenham are missing one specific thing — the finish — and the transfer window closed on Tuesday without them solving it.

The 3-0 at Brentford was a more comprehensive problem. Two matches, five conceded, none scored, and a goal difference of minus five that is level with Aston Villa and Crystal Palace at the foot of the division.

Forest have one point and it came at Anfield

Forest lost their opening match 1-0 at home to Leeds, which is the sort of result that sets a difficult tone at a ground where the crowd expects a fast start.

They then went to Anfield and drew 2-2. Dan Ndoye put them ahead on twenty-four minutes with a right-footed finish from the left side of the box, and Forest came away with a point from a match in which Liverpool had 69.6% of the possession and thirteen shots.

One point from two matches is a poor return in isolation. One point taken at Anfield, having led, is a different proposition entirely — particularly for a side whose next home fixture is against the club currently bottom of the table.

The match this ought to be

Forest will be content to let Tottenham have the ball, because that is what happened at Anfield and it worked. Spurs will have it, because they have had it in both matches so far and it has produced nothing.

The tension in the fixture is straightforward: Tottenham are the better side on possession and shot volume and are bottom; Forest are the more efficient side and have one point. One of those two things has to give here, and whichever does will tell you something real about both seasons.

There is also the matter of the first goal. Tottenham have not scored one all season. A side that has not scored in two matches and goes behind in a third is in genuine trouble, not because of arithmetic but because of what it does to a dressing room in the first week of September.

Forest at home, which is the other half of the problem

Forest have played one match at the City Ground this season and lost it 1-0 to Leeds. That is worth setting beside the Anfield point, because it complicates the easy reading of their season.

A side that takes a point at Anfield and loses at home to Leeds is not straightforwardly a counter-attacking team getting the balance right. It is a team that has been comfortable without the ball and uncomfortable with it — and at home to a Tottenham side that will happily concede possession, Forest may find themselves in exactly the situation that has not suited them.

That is the argument for this being a much closer match than twentieth-versus-fifteenth suggests.

What a defeat would mean for Spurs

Three matches, no points and no goals would put Tottenham in a position only a handful of clubs have been in at this stage of a Premier League season, and very few of them have gone on to have comfortable years.

The mitigating fact is the seventeen shots. This is not a team being outplayed; it is a team failing to convert, and conversion rates regress. The unmitigating fact is that the window is shut until January, so whatever solves it has to already be in the building.

For Forest, three points here would take them to four and out of the bottom five, and would come against the one opponent in the division currently offering a clean opportunity to do so. It is the definition of a match a mid-table side is expected to win, which is exactly why it is awkward.

You can play the rest of it out on the Premier League simulator on this site — the real fixtures, the real table, and the option to find out how long a goalless start usually takes to become a relegation fight.