Tottenham vs Aston Villa: one league goal in eight games
Tottenham vs Aston Villa on Saturday lunchtime brings together two of the three clubs with the fewest league goals in the Premier League, and between them they have one. Tottenham have played four league matches without scoring. Aston Villa have scored once, a header from the substitute Alysson in last Saturday’s 2-1 home defeat by Nottingham Forest. Tottenham are seventeenth on two points and Villa nineteenth on one, and the 12:30 kick-off at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium is a chance for one of them to start climbing.
It is also a match between a side that has plenty of the ball and cannot score and a side that has barely had a shot on target in the league. Something has to give, although four weeks of evidence suggest it may not.
Tottenham: possession without goals
Tottenham have averaged 59.3% of the ball in their four league matches, the sixth-highest share in the division. They have taken fifty-two shots and put twelve on target. None of them has gone in. They lost 3-0 at Brentford on the opening weekend, 2-0 at home to Newcastle, then drew 0-0 at Nottingham Forest and 0-0 at home to Everton last Saturday.
The two goalless draws came with clean sheets, so the defence has steadied since the first fortnight. The attack has not. At the City Ground Tottenham took twelve shots and put none on target. Against Everton they had 62.3% of the ball and two shots on target. They have not scored in either of their two home league matches. The one outlet this season has been the Carabao Cup, where they beat Charlton Athletic 5-1 in the second round in August.
Aston Villa: the fewest shots in the league
Villa’s league numbers are starker still. They have taken thirty-three shots in four matches, the fewest in the division, and put six on target, also the fewest. They did not have a single shot on target in either of their first two matches, the 4-0 defeat at Brighton, where João Gomes was sent off before half-time, and the 1-0 home defeat by Arsenal.
Then came a goalless draw at Hull City in which Villa had 73.5% of the ball and one shot on target, and last Saturday’s defeat by Forest, when Alysson’s seventy-fourth-minute header ended the wait for a first league goal and Igor Jesus won the match two minutes from time. Villa have a single point. Their only win of the season so far came in the Champions League: 3-2 away to Club Brugge on 8 September.
- Tottenham: seventeenth, 2 points, 0 goals scored and 5 conceded in the league
- Aston Villa: nineteenth, 1 point, 1 goal scored and 7 conceded in the league
- Tottenham have averaged 59.3% possession; Villa have taken 33 league shots, the fewest in the division
- Tottenham have kept clean sheets in their last two league matches
- Villa have not scored in either of their two away league matches
What the match turns on
The simplest reading is that the first goal will matter more than usual. Neither side has scored first in a league match this season, and neither has been in front for a single minute of league football. Tottenham have trailed in two matches and Villa in three.
Tottenham have had more of the ball in all four of their league matches. The question is whether the extra possession finally produces better chances: fifty-two shots in four matches, twelve on target, is a middling volume, and none of it has produced a goal. Against Forest, Villa put five of their seven shots on target, by far their best return of the season.
Both clubs have midweek cup ties first. Tottenham play Liverpool at Anfield in the Carabao Cup third round on Tuesday 15 September, and Villa go to Coventry City in the same round on Wednesday 16 September, so neither arrives with a full week of rest.
A draw would suit neither. Two points for Tottenham and one for Villa after four rounds is a start neither club will want to extend into October.
Simulate the match before kick-off
The meeting of two of the league’s three quietest attacks is the kind of match the simulator can help you think about. Run Tottenham vs Aston Villa through the AI simulator as many times as you like and see how often anyone scores at all.
- Run this fixture through the AI match simulator, in tactical view or in the physics arena
- Simulate this week’s Carabao Cup third-round ties, including Liverpool against Tottenham Hotspur and Coventry City against Aston Villa
- Play the remaining 34 rounds from the real table and the real fixture list
- Open the line-up builder for both clubs before you kick off a simulation
- Turn an arena simulation into a vertical video ready to share
"Eight league matches between them, one goal. Saturday lunchtime needs a second."