Arsenal vs Leeds: the first test after the first defeat

Arsenal vs Leeds United opens matchday six at the Emirates Stadium at 12:30 BST on Saturday 10 October, and it is the first match Arsenal play after the only defeat of their season. They won their first four league games, conceded one goal in them, and then lost 3-0 at Brighton. Leeds come to north London as one of four unbeaten sides in the division.

It is also a meeting of two of the tightest defences in the league. Arsenal have conceded four goals in five matches and Leeds three, the joint-fewest of anyone. Whatever happens at the Emirates, it is unlikely to look like the matches either side played on the opening weekends.

Arsenal: four wins, then Brighton

Arsenal’s first four results read 3-0 against Coventry City, 1-0 at Aston Villa, 2-1 against Chelsea and 2-0 at Sunderland. They were controlled, low-risk wins, and three of the five matches have produced a clean sheet. The fifth did not fit the pattern: at the Amex, Arsenal had 60% of the ball, two shots on target and conceded three times in fifty-seven minutes.

At home they have won both matches and conceded one goal, to Chelsea. They have scored eight goals in five, which is modest for a side second in the table, and they have failed to score only once, at Brighton. The question Saturday asks is whether the Amex was a one-off or the first sign of a side that struggles against opponents who do not want the ball.

Leeds: unbeaten, and hard to score against

Leeds took nine points from their first five matches: a 1-0 win at Nottingham Forest, draws with Brentford and at Brighton, a 4-1 win over Newcastle United and a goalless draw with Crystal Palace. Two wins, three draws, no defeats, seven scored and three conceded.

Away from home they are unbeaten in two, a win at the City Ground and a draw at the Amex, and they have conceded one goal on the road. The 4-1 against Newcastle is the only match this season in which they have scored more than once, and three of their five have finished level. They are a side built to stay in matches rather than to run away with them.

• Arsenal: 12 points from their first five, 8 scored, 4 conceded, 3 clean sheets
• Arsenal at home: won 2, drawn 0, lost 0, 5 scored, 1 conceded
• Leeds: 9 points from their first five, 7 scored, 3 conceded, unbeaten
• Leeds away: won 1, drawn 1, lost 0, 2 scored, 1 conceded
• Kick-off: Saturday 10 October, 12:30 BST, Emirates Stadium

Last time out

Arsenal lost 3-0 at Brighton on 19 September. Pascal Gross scored on thirty-one minutes, Charalampos Kostoulas on forty-five and Chema Andres headed the third on fifty-seven. Arsenal had 59.8% of the ball and eleven shots, two of them on target, and the only card they collected went to Declan Rice in stoppage time.

Leeds drew 0-0 with Crystal Palace at Elland Road the following day. They had thirteen shots and two on target, Palace had four on target, and the Leeds goalkeeper made five saves. Five players were booked, all for bad fouls, and it was the only goalless match of the matchday.

Where the table stands

After five matches Arsenal are second on twelve points, three behind Manchester City, the only side with a perfect record. Leeds are fifth on nine, one of four clubs level on that total with two wins and three draws. A Leeds win at the Emirates would bring them level with Arsenal on points.

Arsenal have not lost at home in either of their two matches; Leeds have not lost anywhere. Both runs cannot survive Saturday lunchtime unless the match is drawn, which is what three of Leeds’ five have been.

What decides it

The obvious reading is Arsenal’s control against Leeds’ patience. Brighton beat Arsenal by conceding the ball and hitting them with a handful of efficient attacks; Leeds have a similar profile away from home, with fewer goals and more draws. If Arsenal find a first goal early, their record says they rarely give leads away. If they do not, Leeds have shown five times this season that they can keep a match level for as long as they need to.

The break matters too. Arsenal have had three weeks to dwell on the Brighton defeat and Leeds three weeks to protect an unbeaten run. Only one of those is an unambiguously comfortable place to start a match from.

Simulate it before it happens

Arsenal’s first defeat and Leeds’ unbeaten start meet at the Emirates. On the Premier League simulator you can play this fixture out before Saturday and carry the real table forward from it.

• Play the remaining 33 rounds from the real table and the real fixture list
• Run this fixture through the AI match simulator, in tactical view or in the physics arena
• Open the line-up builder for both clubs before you kick off a simulation
• Turn an arena simulation into a vertical video ready to share

"Arsenal have conceded four goals in five matches, three of them in one afternoon at Brighton. Leeds have conceded three all season."