Aston Villa vs Brentford: Villa still waiting at home

Aston Villa vs Brentford at Villa Park, 15:00 BST on Saturday 10 October, puts the side with the worst home record in the division against one of the four clubs still unbeaten. Villa have played twice at home and lost both, 1-0 to Arsenal and 2-1 to Nottingham Forest. Brentford have played five and lost none.

Villa did finally win last time out, 3-2 at Tottenham after leading 3-0, and that result carried them to four points from five. It was their first league win of the season and it came away from home. They have not yet given Villa Park anything to celebrate.

Villa: one goal at home, three in one afternoon away

Villa’s season has been almost entirely about goals. They lost 4-0 at Brighton on the opening weekend, lost 1-0 at home to Arsenal, drew 0-0 at Hull, lost 2-1 at home to Forest and then scored three at Tottenham. Four goals in five matches, three of them in the most recent one, and nine conceded.

At home they have scored once and conceded three. They have failed to score in three of their five matches, and the only clean sheet they have kept was at Hull. The win at Tottenham was built on efficiency with a third of the ball; Saturday asks them to do it with the crowd expecting them to take the game on.

Brentford: two wins by three, three draws

Brentford have nine points from five: a 3-0 win over Tottenham, draws at Leeds, against Sunderland and at Bournemouth, and a 3-0 win over Chelsea. Both wins came at home, both by three goals, and all three away matches have finished level. They have scored in every match they have played, ten goals in total, and conceded four.

Their away record is two draws from two, three scored and three conceded, which says they travel well without yet knowing how to win on the road. The Chelsea result is the one that will have registered: 40% of the ball, six shots on target, three goals in the last half hour.

• Aston Villa: 4 points from their first five, 4 scored, 9 conceded
• Aston Villa at home: lost 2, 1 scored, 3 conceded
• Brentford: 9 points from their first five, 10 scored, 4 conceded, unbeaten
• Brentford have scored in all five of their league matches
• Kick-off: Saturday 10 October, 15:00 BST, Villa Park

Last time out

Villa won 3-2 at Tottenham on 19 September. Johan Manzambi scored in first-half stoppage time, Nicolas Jackson on sixty-seven and Emiliano Buendia on seventy-nine, before Conor Gallagher and Jan Paul van Hecke pulled two back for Spurs in the last five minutes. Villa had 36% of the ball and one corner all afternoon.

Brentford beat Chelsea 3-0 at the Gtech the night before. Jaidon Anthony headed in on sixty-one minutes, Igor Thiago scored on the break on eighty-three and the substitute Fabio Carvalho added a third in stoppage time. Brentford had 40.6% of the ball and six shots on target to Chelsea’s two.

Where the table stands

After five matches Villa are sixteenth on four points, level with Sunderland and Crystal Palace and one ahead of the bottom three. Brentford are fourth on nine, one of four unbeaten clubs on that total. A Villa win would move them level with a group of sides in the lower half; a Brentford win would take them to twelve points, Arsenal’s total before the weekend.

Both sides won last time out with less of the ball than their opponent, which makes Saturday’s first question a simple one: who wants it?

What decides it

Brentford have not yet won away from home and Villa have not yet won at home. Something gives, or neither does. Brentford’s habit of scoring in every match meets a Villa side that has kept one clean sheet all season, which points one way; their habit of drawing on the road points another.

For Villa the question is whether the Tottenham result was the turn. A second win in a row, and a first at home, would change the shape of a season that started with one point from four matches.

Simulate it before it happens

Villa have lost both home matches and Brentford have drawn every away game. On the Premier League simulator you can run this one before kick-off and see which record breaks first.

• Play the remaining 33 rounds from the real table and the real fixture list
• Run this fixture through the AI match simulator, in tactical view or in the physics arena
• Open the line-up builder for both clubs before you kick off a simulation
• Turn an arena simulation into a vertical video ready to share

"Brentford have scored in all five of their matches. Villa have scored once at Villa Park all season."