Bournemouth vs Liverpool: four league leads, three points
Bournemouth vs Liverpool at the Vitality Stadium on Sunday afternoon pits a side that keeps losing leads against one that has not lost a league match. Bournemouth have been in front in all four of their league matches this season and have three points to show for it, having conceded four goals from the eightieth minute onwards. Liverpool are unbeaten in the league, eighth on six points, with clean sheets in each of their last two league matches. Bournemouth are fifteenth, and they will arrive having played a Europa League match in Spain three days earlier.
It is a fixture that tests the one thing Bournemouth have not managed in the league yet, holding a lead to the final whistle, against a side that has scored two league goals of its own from the eightieth minute.
Bournemouth: four leads, three points
The pattern is now familiar. Marcus Tavernier put Bournemouth ahead at Manchester City on the opening weekend, and City scored on eighty-four minutes and in stoppage time to win 2-1. Alex Scott gave them the lead against Everton, and James Tarkowski equalised in stoppage time. They were 2-0 up at Newcastle and drew 2-2, conceding the equaliser on eighty-eight minutes. Last Saturday they trailed Brentford, led 2-1 and drew 2-2.
That is nine points dropped from winning positions in four league matches. Bournemouth score early, with five of their six league goals before half-time, and concede late: five of the seven goals against them came in the second half. They have also put twenty-four shots on target, the joint-highest total in the league. Tavernier has three league goals. Their Europa League campaign begins away to Real Sociedad on Thursday 17 September.
Marcus Tavernier has scored in three of Bournemouth’s four league matches, at Manchester City, at Newcastle and against Brentford.
Liverpool: unbeaten, and now keeping clean sheets
Liverpool’s league season has brought two 2-2 draws, at Newcastle and at home to Nottingham Forest, a 2-0 win at Ipswich Town and a goalless draw with Fulham last Saturday. Alexander Isak has scored three of their six league goals, including both at Portman Road inside the first nine minutes. Cody Gakpo, Dominik Szoboszlai and Víctor Muñoz have one each.
Liverpool have averaged 60.3% of the ball and have conceded four league goals, two of them in each of their first two matches. They have not conceded in the league since. They also won their Champions League opener, 2-1 at home to Atlético Madrid on 9 September, and host Tottenham in the Carabao Cup third round on Tuesday 15 September.
Bournemouth’s two home league matches, against Everton and Brentford, both ended in draws, and in both they led before being pegged back. Liverpool’s away league record is the 2-2 draw at Newcastle and the 2-0 win at Ipswich, where Isak’s two early goals settled the match.
- AFC Bournemouth: fifteenth, 3 points, 6 scored and 7 conceded; led in all four league matches
- Liverpool: eighth, 6 points, 6 scored and 4 conceded; unbeaten in the league
- Bournemouth have conceded four league goals from the 80th minute onwards
- Liverpool have kept clean sheets in their last two league matches
- Bournemouth play Real Sociedad away in the Europa League on Thursday 17 September
What the match turns on
The obvious question is whether Bournemouth score first again, and the less obvious one is what they do next. Three of their four league matches have turned against them in the final ten minutes. Liverpool, for their part, scored an eighty-second-minute equaliser against Forest and a ninety-ninth-minute penalty at Newcastle.
The schedule is another factor. Bournemouth’s Thursday night in San Sebastián leaves them less than three days before a Sunday 14:00 kick-off, while Liverpool’s last match before this will be the Carabao Cup tie on Tuesday.
Liverpool, for their part, have not always converted possession into goals. They had fourteen shots and three on target against Fulham, and they have scored first in only one of their four league matches. If Bournemouth take the lead again, Liverpool’s ability to come back, which rescued points at Newcastle and at home to Forest, will be tested once more.
Simulate the match before kick-off
Bournemouth’s habit of leading and not winning is exactly the kind of pattern worth testing. Run Bournemouth vs Liverpool through the AI simulator on this site and see how often the lead lasts to the end.
- Run this fixture through the AI match simulator, in tactical view or in the physics arena
- Simulate this week’s Carabao Cup third-round ties, including Liverpool against Tottenham Hotspur
- Play the remaining 34 rounds from the real table and the real fixture list
- Open the line-up builder for both clubs before you kick off a simulation
- Turn an arena simulation into a vertical video ready to share
"Bournemouth have led in every league match this season. They have not yet held one to the final whistle."