Everton vs Man United: 33 shots after a week with none

Manchester United have played two matches this season. In the first they lost 2-0 at a promoted club and did not score. In the second they had thirty-three shots and won 5-2. On Sunday afternoon they go to Everton, and nobody has any real idea which of those two sides will turn up.

Everton are eighth with four points. United are eleventh with three. The gap is one point and the difference in how the two clubs have arrived there is considerable.

United’s fortnight, in two extremes

The opening weekend at the MKM Stadium was a 2-0 defeat to Hull City. United did not score and the promoted side kept a clean sheet, and Hull are now third.

Last Sunday against Ipswich was the opposite in every measurable way. United had 60.4% of the ball, thirty-three shots and eleven on target, and won 5-2. Leif Davis had actually put Ipswich ahead on twenty-nine minutes before Bruno Fernandes equalised on forty with a left-footed finish into the top left corner. Jacob Greaves turned into his own net on fifty-six after a VAR review, Fernandes scored again on sixty-eight, and Bryan Mbeumo made it five on eighty-two from outside the box. Chuba Akpom got a second for Ipswich in stoppage time.

Thirty-three shots is an enormous number — roughly three times what a Premier League side averages in a match. It is also, on the evidence of the week before, not something United can be relied upon to produce.

Everton keep finding the last ten minutes

Everton beat Crystal Palace 2-0 on the opening weekend and then drew 1-1 at Bournemouth in a match they spent most of losing.

Alex Scott put Bournemouth ahead on forty-one minutes. Everton equalised in the first minute of stoppage time, James Tarkowski turning in from the right side of the box following a corner. Bournemouth had 58.5% of the ball and seventeen shots; Everton had thirteen and seven on target.

Four points from two matches, with a clean sheet and a point rescued at the death, is a decent return without being a statement. What it does establish is that this Everton side is difficult to put away, which is the single most awkward trait to face when you are a team whose own consistency is in question.

The ground

This is Everton’s second home match of the season at the Hill Dickinson Stadium, and their first against opposition of this profile. The Palace win was comfortable; this will not be, and a new ground with a full house against Manchester United is a different environment entirely.

For United it is the second away trip of the season, and the first one ended 2-0 to a promoted club. Their away record is currently a single match and a defeat in it.

Bruno Fernandes, and the thing United can rely on

Whatever else is unresolved about this Manchester United side, Fernandes scored twice against Ipswich — the equaliser on forty minutes, left-footed into the top left corner, and the fourth goal on sixty-eight, right-footed into the bottom right. Bryan Mbeumo added a fifth from outside the box.

Five goals from open play in one afternoon is a genuine attacking return regardless of the opposition. The caveat is the same one that applies to the thirty-three shots: it happened against the side with the worst goal difference in the top half.

Everton, meanwhile, have conceded twice in two matches and kept a clean sheet against Crystal Palace. James Tarkowski scoring the stoppage-time equaliser at Bournemouth from a corner is the other thing to watch here — set pieces are how this Everton side has taken points so far.

What decides it

The straightforward reading is that if United reproduce anything close to the Ipswich performance they win comfortably, because Everton have not faced volume like that and conceded seventeen shots at Bournemouth without collapsing but also without controlling much.

The complication is that United’s thirty-three shots came against a side that has now conceded eight in two matches and sits thirteenth. Ipswich were the softest opponent United will face for some time. Hull, a fortnight earlier, gave them nothing at all.

So the question is not really about Everton. It is whether Manchester United, three matches into a season, have a level or a range — and Sunday afternoon on Merseyside is a reasonable place to find out, because Everton are organised, they defend their box, and they have already shown they will still be in the match at eighty-five minutes.

A win takes either club to seven points and, given how compressed this table is, probably into the top six by Sunday evening. You can play the rest of the season out from here on the Premier League simulator on this site, with the real fixtures and the real standings.