How Many Points to Stay Up in the Premier League? The Data

How many points to stay up in the Premier League? The figure repeated in English football for years is 40. We put it to the test against every season played with 20 clubs and 38 matches, from 1995-96 to 2025-26, using the final tables from Wikipedia's season pages, checked row by row against the Premier League's official standings. The verdict is less dramatic than the legend: the club that finished 17th, the last safe place, averaged 37.97 points over those 31 seasons, and only three clubs went down with 40 or more. Even so, the line moves, and 2025-26 proved it: Tottenham Hotspur finished 17th with 41 points, the highest total for a 17th-placed club since 2002-03, and West Ham United were relegated with 39.

The short answer: closer to 38 than 40

A fair comparison starts in 1995-96. The Premier League had 22 clubs and 42 matches in 1994-95, when four clubs went down; since then it has had 20 clubs, 38 matches and three relegation places in every season. For each of the 31 campaigns we recorded the points of the club in 17th, the lowest total that survived, and of the club in 18th, the highest total that went down. Across the whole period, the 17th-placed club averaged 37.97 points, with a median of exactly 38. The 18th-placed club averaged 34.7.

So is 40 a myth? Not quite, but it works as a cushion rather than a border. In 22 of the 31 seasons, the club in 17th stayed up with fewer than 40 points. Seen from the other side, 40 points was more than the 18th-placed club collected in 28 of the 31 seasons. Only twice did the club in 18th finish on exactly 39, which made 40 the minimum needed to finish above the relegation zone on points alone: Birmingham City in 2010-11 and West Ham in 2025-26.

The records of the 38-game era

• Lowest total to stay up: Nottingham Forest, 32 points in 2023-24, after a four-point deduction (36 earned on the pitch).
• Lowest total to stay up without a deduction: West Bromwich Albion, 34 points in 2004-05.
• Highest total to go down: West Ham United, 42 points in 2002-03.
• Highest total for a 17th-placed club: Bolton Wanderers, 44 points in 2002-03.
• Clubs relegated with 40 points or more: three, Sunderland (40, 1996-97), Bolton Wanderers (40, 1997-98) and West Ham (42, 2002-03).
• Average for 17th place: 37.97 points. Average for 18th place: 34.7 points.
• Seasons in which 17th and 18th finished level on points: four, all settled on goal difference.

The most common totals for 17th place were 36 and 38, which each kept a club up in six seasons, while the club in 18th most often went down with 34, in seven seasons. One footnote belongs next to the West Ham record: Middlesbrough also earned 42 points on the pitch in 1996-97, but finished 19th on 39 because of a three-point deduction, a case explained further down.

When 40 was not enough, and when goals decided it

1996-97 is the clearest case. Sunderland finished 18th with 40 points after losing 1-0 away to Wimbledon on the final day, 11 May 1997, while Coventry City won 2-1 at Tottenham to reach 41 and finish 17th. A year later, on 10 May 1998, Bolton Wanderers lost 2-0 at Chelsea and ended level with Everton on 40 points; Everton, who drew 1-1 with Coventry, stayed up on goal difference, minus 15 against Bolton's minus 20.

Then came West Ham in 2002-03. They collected 42 points and drew 2-2 at Birmingham City on the final day, 11 May 2003, but still went down because Bolton beat Middlesbrough 2-1 to finish on 44. No other club has been relegated with more than 40 points in a 38-game season. Goal difference settled three more survival fights: Manchester City went down in 1995-96 on 38 points, level with Southampton and Coventry; Sheffield United lost 2-1 at home to Wigan Athletic on 13 May 2007 and finished below them by a single goal of goal difference, on 38; and on 11 May 2008 Reading won 4-0 at Derby County but went down on 36, because Fulham won 1-0 at Portsmouth and kept the better goal difference.

"Forty points has let a club down only three times in 31 seasons, but the club in 17th has usually survived on fewer."

The lowest totals that survived

The official record belongs to Nottingham Forest in 2023-24. They finished 17th with 32 points after being docked four for breaching the Premier League's profitability and sustainability rules; with those points they would have had 36 and still finished 17th, well clear of Luton Town on 26. Without any deduction involved, the lowest total to survive is West Bromwich Albion's 34 in 2004-05. According to the Premier League, West Brom were bottom at Christmas and remain the only club in its history to start the final weekend in 20th place and stay up. On 15 May 2005 they beat Portsmouth 2-0 while Crystal Palace drew 2-2 at Charlton Athletic, Norwich City lost 6-0 at Fulham and Southampton lost 2-1 at home to Manchester United.

That West Brom side won only six league matches, the fewest by any club that survived in the 38-game era. Next on the list of low totals come three clubs that stayed up with 35 points: Hull City in 2008-09, West Ham in 2009-10 and Aston Villa in 2019-20.

Points deductions: only one changed who went down

Four clubs have had points deducted during a 38-game Premier League season, and only one of those sanctions changed which clubs were relegated. Middlesbrough called off their match at Blackburn Rovers, due on 21 December 1996, at short notice, citing an injury and illness crisis in the squad, and were docked three points. The fixture was eventually played on 8 May 1997 and ended 0-0. Three days later Boro drew 1-1 at Leeds United and finished 19th on 39 points. With those three points they would have had 42, above Southampton and Coventry on 41, and Coventry, who had the worse goal difference of the two, would have gone down instead.

The other three sanctions did not change the bottom three. Portsmouth were docked nine points in 2009-10 after entering administration and finished bottom with 19; without the deduction they would have had 28, still below Hull City and Burnley on 30. In 2023-24 Everton lost eight points for two separate breaches of the profitability and sustainability rules, first a ten-point sanction cut to six on appeal and then two more, and still finished 15th with 40. Forest's four-point deduction that season left them 17th either way. No club had points deducted in 2024-25 or 2025-26.

The last ten seasons: a lower bar, until 2025-26

The line has drifted down over time. In the first ten 38-game seasons, from 1995-96 to 2004-05, the 17th-placed club averaged 39.5 points and the 18th-placed club 36.5. In the last ten, from 2016-17 to 2025-26, those averages fell to 37.1 and 32.2. From 2011-12 to 2024-25 no club finishing 18th reached 38 points, so 38 was enough on points for 14 seasons in a row. The bottom of the table was especially weak in 2023-24 and 2024-25, when the three promoted clubs filled the relegation places both times; Leicester City went down with 25 points in 2024-25, 13 behind Tottenham in 17th. These were the 17th and 18th totals of the last ten seasons:

• 2016-17: Watford 40 (17th), Hull City 34 (18th)
• 2017-18: Southampton 36, Swansea City 33
• 2018-19: Brighton & Hove Albion 36, Cardiff City 34
• 2019-20: Aston Villa 35, Bournemouth 34
• 2020-21: Burnley 39, Fulham 28
• 2021-22: Leeds United 38, Burnley 35
• 2022-23: Everton 36, Leicester City 34
• 2023-24: Nottingham Forest 32 after a four-point deduction, Luton Town 26
• 2024-25: Tottenham Hotspur 38, Leicester City 25
• 2025-26: Tottenham Hotspur 41, West Ham United 39

How the 2025-26 relegation places were decided

Two places were settled weeks before the end. Wolverhampton Wanderers were relegated on 20 April 2026, when West Ham's 0-0 draw at Crystal Palace left Wolves, on 17 points with five games to play, unable to catch them, which ended eight consecutive seasons in the top flight. Two days later Burnley lost 1-0 at home to Manchester City and went down with four matches left, 13 points adrift of 17th-placed West Ham, one season after winning promotion. Wolves finished bottom with 20 points and Burnley 19th with 22, after the two drew 1-1 at Turf Moor on the final day.

The third place went to the final day, 24 May 2026. West Ham began it two points behind Tottenham and needed to beat Leeds United at the London Stadium while Spurs lost at home to Everton. West Ham won 3-0, but Tottenham beat Everton 1-0. Spurs finished 17th on 41 points, the highest total for a 17th-placed club since 2002-03, and West Ham 18th on 39, the most by a relegated club since Birmingham City and Blackpool went down with 39 in 2010-11. That ended West Ham's 14-year stay in the Premier League. It was also the first season since 2022-23 in which promoted clubs stayed up: Sunderland finished seventh and Leeds 14th.

So how many points will 2026-27 take?

History offers a range rather than a single number. A total of 38 points was more than the 18th-placed club collected in 24 of the 31 seasons, and 40 points in 28 of them. And 43 points has never failed: no club has gone down with 43 or more in the 38-game era. West Ham's 39 in 2025-26 would have beaten the 18th-placed total in 26 of the other 30 seasons, which shows how much the line depends on who is fighting at the bottom. This season the promoted clubs are Coventry City, Ipswich Town and Hull City, and the bar for 2026-27 will depend partly on whether they compete, as Sunderland and Leeds did, or struggle like the promoted clubs of 2023-24 and 2024-25.

Simulate the 2026-27 relegation fight

Averages show where the line has usually been, but they cannot tell you where it will fall this season. That depends on the matches still to be played, which is exactly what the Premier League simulator lets you explore: it starts from the real table and the real fixture list, and you play out the rest of the season to see which total is enough to survive.

For a wider view, the supercomputer page offers season projections for the Premier League. Set them against the benchmarks in this article: 38 as the median for 17th place, 40 as the traditional target and 42, the total West Ham went down with in 2002-03.

"Forty points is a comfort blanket, not a law: 38 has usually been enough, and 42 once was not."

• Premier League simulator: play the rest of the 2026-27 season from the real table and the real fixture list.
• Supercomputer page with season projections for the Premier League.
• AI match simulator for any fixture, in a tactical view or a physics arena, with a vertical video export of arena matches.
• Championship, League One and League Two simulators, built on the same idea for the EFL.
• Line-up builder to pick the XI for a relegation six-pointer.

"Survival has no fixed number: it is whatever keeps you above the club in 18th."