Newcastle vs Hull City: less of the ball, more points

Newcastle United vs Hull City at St James’ Park on Saturday afternoon is a meeting between a side that has conceded more shots than anyone in the Premier League and a side that has barely wanted the ball and has more points than almost everyone. Hull are fourth, unbeaten in the league with eight points, and have averaged 29.6% possession, the lowest in the division. Newcastle are twelfth on five points, and they arrive five days after a 4-1 defeat at Leeds United.

It is only the fifth round, but Hull already have more league points than Newcastle, Liverpool or Chelsea, and Newcastle are still waiting for their first league win at home.

Newcastle: a heavy Monday night

Newcastle’s two home league matches have both ended 2-2. Against Liverpool they led twice before Dominik Szoboszlai equalised from the penalty spot in the ninth minute of stoppage time; against Bournemouth they came back from 2-0 down. In between they won 2-0 at Tottenham through Anthony Elanga and Yoane Wissa.

Monday’s match at Elland Road changed the picture. Newcastle were 3-0 down at half-time, conceded a fourth before the hour and lost 4-1. They have now conceded eight league goals, and the seventy-six shots opponents have taken against them are the most in the division. Elanga has two league goals; Joe Willock, Wissa, Harvey Barnes, Jacob Ramsey and Bazoumana Touré one each. In the Carabao Cup they are through to the fourth round after wins over West Bromwich Albion and Millwall.

Hull City: unbeaten without the ball

Hull opened by beating Manchester United 2-0 with 28.5% of the ball, won 1-0 at Coventry City with a Liam Millar goal on eighty-two minutes, drew 0-0 with Aston Villa despite having only 26.5% possession, and drew 2-2 at Chelsea last Saturday with 32.2%. Morgan Rogers’s goal at Stamford Bridge was the first they had conceded in the league; Mohamed Belloumi then scored twice in six minutes.

Two league goals conceded in four matches is the joint second-best record in the division, behind only Arsenal. Hull have three league clean sheets. Their only defeat in any competition this season came in the Carabao Cup, 1-0 at Sunderland on 8 September.

Hull are also unbeaten away from home in the league, with a 1-0 win at Coventry City and the 2-2 draw at Stamford Bridge. Liam Millar’s eighty-second-minute goal at Coventry is the only league goal they have scored after half-time. Newcastle, at home, have scored four league goals and conceded four, two in each match.

• Newcastle United: twelfth, 5 points, 7 scored and 8 conceded
• Hull City: fourth, 8 points, 5 scored and 2 conceded, unbeaten in the league
• Hull have averaged 29.6% possession, the lowest in the Premier League
• Newcastle’s league opponents have taken 76 shots, the most against any side
• Newcastle’s two home league matches have both ended 2-2

What the match turns on

Newcastle have had the majority of the ball in only one league match this season, at home to Bournemouth, and it did not suit them: they had 57.3% of it and managed eight shots and two on target. Hull have had less than a third of the ball in all four of their league matches.

Hull’s two league wins, against Manchester United and at Coventry City, came with 28.5% and 31.3% of the ball. Newcastle’s only league win came at Tottenham, where they had 42.5% of the ball and scored twice in the second half.

The other side of that is Newcastle’s defending. Leeds scored three times in the space between the thirty-second minute and half-time on Monday, and Hull have shown they can hurt sides quickly: both of Belloumi’s goals at Chelsea came inside six minutes, the second after a corner.

Hull have also scored four of their five league goals in the first half. If they score first at St James’ Park, Newcastle will be chasing a match against a side that has kept three clean sheets in four. If Newcastle score first, Hull will have to chase a league match, something they have had to do only once this season, at Stamford Bridge.

Kick-off is at 15:00 on Saturday. Neither side plays in midweek: Hull have had a full week since Chelsea, and Newcastle five days since Leeds.

Simulate the match before kick-off

Hull’s low-possession, unbeaten start and Newcastle’s search for a first home league win make this one of the more unusual fixtures of the round. Run Newcastle vs Hull City through the AI simulator and see whether the ball matters.

• Run this fixture through the AI match simulator, in tactical view or in the physics arena
• Play the remaining 34 rounds from the real table and the real fixture list
• Open the line-up builder for both clubs before you kick off a simulation
• Turn an arena simulation into a vertical video ready to share

"Hull have had less of the ball than anyone and have more points than sixteen clubs."