Sunderland vs Brighton: the division’s top scorers visit

Sunderland vs Brighton and Hove Albion at the Stadium of Light, 15:00 BST on Saturday 10 October, brings the most prolific attack in the Premier League to a side that has just learned how to score. Brighton have sixteen goals in five matches. Sunderland scored three in one afternoon at the Etihad and still lost.

Brighton arrive having beaten Arsenal 3-0 at the Amex, the only defeat Arsenal have suffered this season. They have scored three or more in four of their five matches and have not failed to score once.

Sunderland: three goals and a defeat

Sunderland lost 2-1 at Ipswich Town, beat Fulham 1-0, drew 1-1 at Brentford, lost 2-0 at home to Arsenal and then lost 5-3 at Manchester City, where Brian Brobbey scored a hat-trick. Six goals scored and ten conceded, four points from five, and half of those goals came in the most recent match.

At home they have a win and a defeat, one scored and two conceded, which makes the Stadium of Light the one place their matches have stayed tight. The Etihad showed they can score against anyone; it also showed they can concede five.

Brighton: three goals a game

Brighton beat Aston Villa 4-0, lost 4-3 at Chelsea, drew 1-1 with Leeds United, won 5-0 at Coventry City and beat Arsenal 3-0. Sixteen scored, five conceded, ten points, three clean sheets. Their average is more than three goals a game.

Away from home they have played two, won 5-0 at Coventry and lost 4-3 at Chelsea: eight goals scored in two away matches. They have also had less of the ball than their opponent in four of their five matches, which is how they beat Arsenal and how they are likely to set up again.

• Sunderland: 4 points from their first five, 6 scored, 10 conceded
• Sunderland at home: won 1, lost 1, 1 scored, 2 conceded
• Brighton: 10 points from their first five, 16 scored, 5 conceded
• Brighton have scored in every match and three or more in four of them
• Kick-off: Saturday 10 October, 15:00 BST, Stadium of Light

Last time out

Sunderland lost 5-3 at Manchester City on 20 September. Brian Brobbey scored on twelve, thirty-three and fifty-nine minutes, set up by Enzo Le Fee, Thomas Meunier and Nilson Angulo. Sunderland had seventeen shots to City’s sixteen and nine on target to six, and were level three times before City pulled away.

Brighton beat Arsenal 3-0 at the Amex the day before. Pascal Gross scored and then assisted, Charalampos Kostoulas scored on the stroke of half time and Chema Andres headed the third. Brighton had 40.2% of the ball, seventeen shots and five on target, three of which went in.

Where the table stands

After five matches Sunderland are fourteenth on four points and Brighton third on ten, five points behind Manchester City. Brighton’s goal difference of plus eleven is the best in the division by three.

Sunderland have lost their last two and Brighton have won their last two, by eight goals to none combined. A Sunderland win would be the result of the weekend; a Brighton win would keep them in the group chasing City and Arsenal.

What decides it

Sunderland’s home matches have produced three goals in two games; Brighton’s away matches have produced fifteen. The Stadium of Light is where Sunderland keep things tight and Brighton are the side that makes that hardest to do.

The individual contest to watch is Brobbey, whose hat-trick at the Etihad gave him four league goals, against a Brighton defence that has conceded five all season. Sunderland scored three at City with 45% of the ball. Brighton are happy to give them the ball too.

There is one more figure worth having in mind. Brighton have kept three clean sheets, all of them in matches they won by three goals or more, and their only defeat came in a 4-3 at Stamford Bridge. When they have been good they have been very good; when they have been beaten it has taken seven goals to do it. Sunderland scored three at the Etihad. They will probably need at least two on Saturday to take anything.

Simulate it before it happens

Brighton score three a game and Sunderland just scored three at the Etihad. On the Premier League simulator you can play this one before Saturday and take the real table forward from it.

• Play the remaining 33 rounds from the real table and the real fixture list
• Run this fixture through the AI match simulator, in tactical view or in the physics arena
• Open the line-up builder for both clubs before you kick off a simulation
• Turn an arena simulation into a vertical video ready to share

"Brighton have sixteen goals in five matches. They have not failed to score in any of them."