Bolton vs Stoke: two sides that found form after bad starts

Bolton Wanderers vs Stoke City, 15:00 BST on Saturday 10 October, is a meeting of two clubs who have spent the opening two months recovering from bad starts. Stoke lost their first three and are unbeaten in five. Bolton lost four in a row and have won their last two.

Bolton’s most recent result was a 4-3 win at Norwich City, the kind of match that can change a season’s mood. Stoke’s was a 2-1 home win over Sheffield United, their fourth win in five.

Bolton: four defeats, then two wins

Bolton beat Preston North End 2-1 and drew 0-0 at Queens Park Rangers, then lost 1-0 at home to Lincoln City, 3-2 at Sheffield United, 4-0 at Millwall and 3-2 at home to West Ham United. They recovered with a 1-0 win over Cardiff City and the 4-3 at Norwich. Eleven scored, fifteen conceded, ten points.

At home they have won two and lost two, five scored and five conceded. They have failed to score in three matches and kept two clean sheets. The Norwich result was the first time this season they have scored more than twice.

Stoke: five unbeaten after three defeats

Stoke lost 2-1 at home to Swansea City, 3-1 at Southampton and 4-1 at Wolverhampton Wanderers. Since then they have beaten Norwich 1-0 and Charlton Athletic 4-0, drawn 1-1 at Cardiff City, won 2-1 at Watford and beaten Sheffield United 2-1. Thirteen scored, twelve conceded, thirteen points, and they have scored in every match.

Away from home they have a win, a draw and two defeats, five scored and nine conceded, and two of those defeats were the heavy ones at the start of the season. The recent away form is better: unbeaten at Cardiff and a win at Watford.

• Bolton: 10 points from their first eight, 11 scored, 15 conceded
• Bolton at home: won 2, lost 2, 5 scored, 5 conceded
• Stoke: 13 points from their first eight, 13 scored, 12 conceded, unbeaten in five
• Stoke have scored in all eight of their league matches
• Kick-off: Saturday 10 October, 15:00 BST

Last time out

Bolton won 4-3 at Norwich on 20 September, a second consecutive win after four straight defeats. It was their first away win of the season and the most goals they have scored in a match.

Stoke beat Sheffield United 2-1 at home on 19 September, extending their unbeaten run to five and taking them into eighth place, one point outside the play-offs.

Where the table stands

After eight matches Stoke are eighth on thirteen points and Bolton fifteenth on ten. A Stoke win would lift them above the current play-off line; a Bolton win would take them to thirteen, level with Stoke, and complete a turnaround from four consecutive defeats to three consecutive wins.

Two halves of a start

Stoke’s two halves could hardly be more different. Three points from their first four matches, four goals scored and nine conceded. Ten points from their last four, nine scored and three conceded. In a month they have gone from the bottom group to the edge of the play-off places.

Bolton’s turnaround is shorter and more chaotic. Four points from their first four and six from their last four, but the last four include ten goals conceded and six of Bolton’s eight matches have been decided by a single goal. They have won their last two; they have not yet shown they can win comfortably.

What decides it

Both sides are in form and both have obvious weaknesses. Bolton concede a lot away from home but less at home; Stoke score everywhere but concede freely on the road. The likeliest shape is a match with goals, and Stoke’s habit of always scoring against Bolton’s habit of sometimes not scoring points slightly towards the visitors.

Neither side can afford to give back what the last month has earned. The loser drops back into the pack that starts at nine points.

There is a contrast in how the two sides have won. Stoke’s four wins include a 4-0 over Charlton and three one-goal victories. Bolton’s three wins have all been by a single goal, 2-1, 1-0 and 4-3. Neither side has made a habit of winning comfortably, which leaves plenty of room for the late drama both have been producing.

Simulate it before it happens

Stoke have not lost in five and Bolton have won their last two. On the Championship simulator you can play this one now and see whose run survives.

• Play the remaining 38 rounds from the real table and the real fixture list
• Run this fixture through the AI match simulator, in tactical view or in the physics arena
• Open the line-up builder for both clubs before you kick off a simulation
• Turn an arena simulation into a vertical video ready to share

"Stoke lost their first three and have not lost since. Bolton lost four in a row and have not lost since."