Charlton vs Bristol City: tight at home, leaky away

Charlton Athletic vs Bristol City at The Valley, 12:30 BST on Saturday 10 October, puts one of the Championship’s meanest home defences against one of its most open away sides. Charlton have conceded one goal in four home matches. Bristol City’s four away matches have produced sixteen goals.

It is also a meeting of two clubs heading in opposite directions. Charlton won their first three league matches and have not won in five since. Bristol City lost two in a row in mid-September and then won their most recent match, 1-0 against Watford.

Charlton: a fast start, then five without a win

Charlton beat Derby County 2-1, won 2-1 at West Ham United and beat Preston North End 1-0. Then came a 1-1 at West Bromwich Albion, a 4-0 defeat at Stoke City, goalless draws with Queens Park Rangers and Portsmouth, and a 3-1 defeat at Cardiff City. Seven scored, ten conceded, twelve points.

At home the record is very different from the overall picture: two wins, two draws, no defeats, three goals scored and one conceded. The problem at The Valley has been scoring, not defending; they have failed to score in three matches this season and two of those were at home.

Bristol City: goals away from home

Bristol City lost 2-0 at home to Millwall, drew 2-2 at Birmingham City, beat Portsmouth 2-1, won 3-1 at Preston and 2-1 at Burnley, lost 4-1 at Southampton and 1-0 at home to Lincoln City, and beat Watford 1-0. Eleven scored, twelve conceded, thirteen points.

Their away form is the more productive side of their season: two wins, a draw and a defeat, eight scored and eight conceded. At home they have scored three in four. They are a team that plays more freely on the road, which is exactly where Saturday is.

• Charlton: 12 points from their first eight, 7 scored, 10 conceded
• Charlton at home: won 2, drawn 2, 3 scored, 1 conceded
• Bristol City: 13 points from their first eight, 11 scored, 12 conceded
• Bristol City away: won 2, drawn 1, lost 1, 8 scored, 8 conceded
• Kick-off: Saturday 10 October, 12:30 BST, The Valley

Last time out

Charlton lost 3-1 at Cardiff City on 19 September. It was Cardiff’s first league win of the season, and it extended Charlton’s run without a win to five matches. Their last two away matches have been lost by a combined seven goals to one.

Bristol City beat Watford 1-0 at Ashton Gate on 18 September, their first clean sheet of the season and a win that stopped a run of two defeats. It lifted them to thirteen points and ninth place.

Where the table stands

After eight matches Bristol City are ninth on thirteen points and Charlton tenth on twelve. The play-off places begin at sixth, which is currently held on fourteen, so both clubs are within a win of the top six and both know a defeat would drop them into the crowded middle of the table.

Two halves of a start

Charlton’s season has two chapters and they do not look like the same team. From their first four matches they took ten points, scoring six and conceding three. From the last four they have taken two, scoring one goal and conceding seven. The home record has held; the away record has collapsed.

Bristol City have been more even: seven points from the first four and six from the last four, with goals at both ends in roughly equal measure. Four of their eight matches have been decided by a single goal. They are not a side that blows opponents away, and Charlton at home have not been blown away by anyone.

What decides it

Charlton’s home defence has been excellent and their home attack has been poor. Bristol City’s away attack has been productive and their away defence has been generous. The most likely outcome on those numbers is a tight match that hinges on whether Bristol City can score at a ground where only one visiting side has managed it.

For Charlton, a win would end a five-match run and restore some of the momentum of August. For Bristol City, a second win in a row would put them among the play-off chasers going into the next block of fixtures.

Simulate it before it happens

Charlton concede almost nothing at home and Bristol City score freely away. On the Championship simulator you can run this fixture now and see which record holds.

• Play the remaining 38 rounds from the real table and the real fixture list
• Run this fixture through the AI match simulator, in tactical view or in the physics arena
• Open the line-up builder for both clubs before you kick off a simulation
• Turn an arena simulation into a vertical video ready to share

"Charlton have conceded one goal at The Valley all season. Bristol City’s away matches have produced sixteen."