West Brom vs Birmingham: a derby for the draw specialists
West Bromwich Albion vs Birmingham City at The Hawthorns, 12:30 BST on Saturday 10 October, is the West Midlands derby and a meeting between an unbeaten home side and the division’s draw specialists. West Brom have not lost at The Hawthorns. Birmingham have drawn five of their eight matches.
West Brom arrive after losing 1-0 at Wolverhampton Wanderers in their previous match, another local derby. Birmingham drew 2-2 at home to Middlesbrough, their fourth draw in four home matches.
West Brom: unbeaten at home
West Brom won 2-1 at Norwich City, beat Burnley 3-1, lost 3-1 at Middlesbrough, drew 1-1 with Charlton Athletic, beat Watford 1-0, won 1-0 at Derby County, drew 1-1 with Queens Park Rangers and lost 1-0 at Wolves. Ten scored, eight conceded, fourteen points.
At The Hawthorns they have won two and drawn two, scored six and conceded three. Four of their eight matches have been decided by a single goal, and they have kept two clean sheets. It is a side that wins narrowly and loses narrowly, and has done both in roughly equal measure.
Birmingham: five draws from eight
Birmingham drew 0-0 at Sheffield United, drew 2-2 with Bristol City, won 2-1 at Wrexham, drew 1-1 with Southampton and 2-2 with Wolves, lost 2-1 at Norwich, won 2-1 at Derby and drew 2-2 with Middlesbrough. Twelve scored, eleven conceded, eleven points.
Every one of their four home matches has finished level. Away from home they have been more decisive: two wins, a draw and a defeat, five scored and four conceded. Both of their wins this season came on the road.
- West Brom: 14 points from their first eight, 10 scored, 8 conceded
- West Brom at home: won 2, drawn 2, 6 scored, 3 conceded
- Birmingham: 11 points from their first eight, 12 scored, 11 conceded, 5 draws
- Birmingham away: won 2, drawn 1, lost 1, 5 scored, 4 conceded
- Kick-off: Saturday 10 October, 12:30 BST, The Hawthorns
Last time out
West Brom lost 1-0 at Wolves on 20 September, the only goal of a derby between two sides in the top six. It was their second defeat of the season, both away from home.
Birmingham drew 2-2 with Middlesbrough on 19 September, holding the side then third in the table and taking their record at home to four draws from four.
Where the table stands
After eight matches West Brom are sixth on fourteen points, holding the last play-off place on goal difference. Birmingham are eleventh on eleven, three points behind them. A Birmingham win would draw them level on points with their neighbours and put them right in the play-off conversation.
Two halves of a start
West Brom have taken seven points from their first four matches and seven from their last four, but they have done it very differently. The first four produced seven goals scored and six conceded; the last four produced three scored and two conceded. They have become a tighter side as September went on.
Birmingham have taken six points and then five, with their matches getting more open rather than less: five scored and four conceded in the first four, seven and seven in the last four. Six of their eight matches have had at least three goals. Only three of West Brom’s have.
What decides it
West Brom have not lost at home and Birmingham have lost once away from home. Birmingham also draw at a rate no one else in the division matches. On those numbers, a draw is the likeliest single result, and the first goal is likely to shape everything that follows.
For West Brom, a home win would restore the momentum lost at Molineux. For Birmingham, a win at The Hawthorns would be their first derby win of the season and a third away win from five.
Birmingham’s four home draws deserve a second look. They came against Bristol City, Southampton, Wolverhampton Wanderers and Middlesbrough, all four of whom are currently in the top nine. Birmingham have not been beaten at home by anyone and have not beaten anyone there either, and the opponents in that run have been some of the best sides in the division. West Brom, in sixth, would fit the pattern.
Simulate it before it happens
West Brom do not lose at home and Birmingham rarely lose at all. On the Championship simulator you can play the derby now and see who breaks first.
- Play the remaining 38 rounds from the real table and the real fixture list
- Run this fixture through the AI match simulator, in tactical view or in the physics arena
- Open the line-up builder for both clubs before you kick off a simulation
- Turn an arena simulation into a vertical video ready to share
"Birmingham have drawn all four of their home matches. At The Hawthorns, West Brom have not lost."