Chelsea vs Bournemouth: goals at one end, no wins at other

Chelsea vs AFC Bournemouth at Stamford Bridge, 15:00 BST on Saturday 10 October, sets the division’s most open side against its only winless one. Chelsea’s five matches have produced twenty-two goals between them. Bournemouth have taken three points from five, all from draws.

Chelsea come into it off a 3-0 defeat at Brentford in which they had 59% of the ball and two shots on target. It was the first match of their season in which they failed to score, and the first time any of their matches had finished with fewer than four goals in it.

Chelsea: everything happens in their matches

Chelsea won 3-2 at Fulham on the opening weekend, beat Brighton 4-3, lost 2-1 at Arsenal, drew 2-2 with Hull City and lost 3-0 at Brentford. Ten scored, twelve conceded, seven points, and no clean sheet in five attempts. They are the only side in the division to have both scored and conceded ten or more.

Stamford Bridge has been kinder: one win and one draw, six scored and five conceded. But the pattern is the same at home as away. Chelsea have conceded at least twice in four of their five matches, and the only exception was the afternoon they did not score at all.

Bournemouth: three draws and two defeats

Bournemouth lost 2-1 at Manchester City on the opening weekend, then drew 1-1 with Everton, 2-2 at Newcastle United and 2-2 with Brentford, and lost 1-0 at home to Liverpool. Six scored, eight conceded, and they had found a goal in each of their first four before Liverpool kept them out.

Away from home they have a draw at Newcastle and a narrow defeat at the Etihad, three goals scored in those two matches. Bournemouth have not been beaten by more than one goal all season, which is the most encouraging number they will take to London.

• Chelsea: 7 points from their first five, 10 scored, 12 conceded, no clean sheets
• Chelsea at home: won 1, drawn 1, 6 scored, 5 conceded
• Bournemouth: 3 points from their first five, 6 scored, 8 conceded, no wins
• Bournemouth have not lost any match by more than one goal
• Kick-off: Saturday 10 October, 15:00 BST, Stamford Bridge

Last time out

Chelsea lost 3-0 at Brentford on 18 September. They had 59.4% of the ball and twelve corners and put two shots on target; Jaidon Anthony, Igor Thiago and Fabio Carvalho scored in the last half hour. It was the first match of Chelsea’s season to finish without a Chelsea goal.

Bournemouth lost 1-0 at home to Liverpool on 20 September, Alexander Isak scoring on fifty-seven minutes. They had nine shots and two on target in the quietest match of the matchday, and it was the first time this season they had failed to score.

Where the table stands

After five matches Chelsea are tenth on seven points and Bournemouth seventeenth on three, one place and one point above the relegation zone. Chelsea’s goal difference is minus two despite ten goals scored; Bournemouth’s is minus two despite not having lost by more than one in any match.

A Bournemouth win would be their first of the season and take them to six points. A Chelsea win would be their first since the end of August.

What decides it

Chelsea’s matches keep producing goals and Bournemouth keep scoring, which is a combination that usually ends with more than two in the net. The Brentford result is the outlier on Chelsea’s record rather than the rule: they have been dangerous every other week and leaky every week.

For Bournemouth a first win would lift them off the bottom three. For Chelsea, three points would be only a second win in four, and a first clean sheet of the season would be almost as welcome.

One number sums up how differently the two sides have lived the opening month. Chelsea’s five matches have produced twenty-two goals, an average of more than four a game. Bournemouth’s have produced fourteen, and the widest margin in any of them was a single goal. Stamford Bridge has hosted eleven goals in Chelsea’s two home matches, so the likelier question is not whether there are goals but whether Chelsea can keep their own end closed for once.

Simulate it before it happens

Chelsea’s matches average more than four goals and Bournemouth have not won. On the Premier League simulator you can play Saturday’s match now and take the real table forward from it.

• Play the remaining 33 rounds from the real table and the real fixture list
• Run this fixture through the AI match simulator, in tactical view or in the physics arena
• Open the line-up builder for both clubs before you kick off a simulation
• Turn an arena simulation into a vertical video ready to share

"Chelsea have not kept a clean sheet in five matches. Bournemouth have not lost any of theirs by more than a goal."