Derby vs Wrexham: Derby still without a win at Pride Park

Derby County vs Wrexham at Pride Park, 15:00 BST on Saturday 10 October, is a match between a side still waiting for a home win and a side that has just beaten one of the promotion favourites. Derby have lost three of four at Pride Park. Wrexham beat Southampton 2-1 last time out.

Derby are twenty-second, in the relegation zone, with five points from eight. They are four matches without a win. Wrexham are fourteenth on ten, and their season has swung between a 6-0 defeat at West Ham and that win over Southampton.

Derby: one win in eight

Derby lost 2-1 at Charlton Athletic, drew 2-2 with Cardiff City, lost 3-0 at home to Swansea City, won 2-0 at Portsmouth, lost 3-0 at West Ham United, lost 1-0 at home to West Bromwich Albion, lost 2-1 at home to Birmingham City and drew 1-1 at Burnley. Seven scored, fourteen conceded, five points.

At home they have a draw and three defeats, three goals scored and eight conceded. Their only win came away, at Portsmouth in early September. They have failed to score in three matches and kept one clean sheet all season, in that win.

Wrexham: draws, a thrashing and a big win

Wrexham drew 1-1 at Cardiff City and 1-1 with Watford, lost 2-1 at home to Birmingham City, won 3-0 at Millwall, drew 0-0 at Swansea City and 1-1 with Burnley, lost 6-0 at West Ham and beat Southampton 2-1. Nine scored, twelve conceded, ten points.

Away from home they have a win, two draws and a defeat, four scored and seven conceded, and six of those seven came in one afternoon at the London Stadium. Take that match out and their away defence has conceded one goal in three.

• Derby: 5 points from their first eight, 7 scored, 14 conceded
• Derby at home: drawn 1, lost 3, 3 scored, 8 conceded
• Wrexham: 10 points from their first eight, 9 scored, 12 conceded, 4 draws
• Wrexham away: won 1, drawn 2, lost 1, 4 scored, 7 conceded
• Kick-off: Saturday 10 October, 15:00 BST, Pride Park

Last time out

Derby drew 1-1 at Burnley on 19 September, a meeting of two sides in the bottom three. It stopped a run of three defeats but extended their run without a win to four.

Wrexham beat Southampton 2-1 at home the same afternoon. Southampton had won all four of their home matches and arrived fourth in the table; it was the kind of result that suggests Wrexham’s 6-0 at West Ham was the exception.

Where the table stands

After eight matches Derby are twenty-second on five points, two points from safety. Wrexham are fourteenth on ten. A Derby win would lift them to eight points and could take them out of the bottom three; a Wrexham win would open an eight-point gap.

Two halves of a start

Derby’s form has got worse, not better. Four points from their first four matches, one point from their last four. In those last four they have scored two goals and conceded seven, and the only point came in the draw at Burnley, the side at the bottom of the table.

Wrexham have taken five points from each half, but the goals tell a different story: six scored and four conceded in the first four, three scored and eight conceded in the last four, most of those in the 6-0 at West Ham. The win over Southampton is the result that suggests their season is heading upwards again.

What decides it

Derby need to find a way to win at home, and nothing in their numbers yet suggests how. Wrexham’s away record, once the West Ham match is set aside, is tight and hard to break down. That combination rarely favours a home side that has scored three goals at its own ground all season.

For Derby this is the kind of fixture a side in the bottom three has to win. For Wrexham, a second consecutive win would carry them into the top half.

Wrexham have kept two clean sheets this season, both away from home, at Millwall and at Swansea. Derby have failed to score in three of their eight matches, two of them at Pride Park.

Simulate it before it happens

Derby have not won at home and Wrexham have just beaten Southampton. On the Championship simulator you can run this match now and take the real table forward.

• Play the remaining 38 rounds from the real table and the real fixture list
• Run this fixture through the AI match simulator, in tactical view or in the physics arena
• Open the line-up builder for both clubs before you kick off a simulation
• Turn an arena simulation into a vertical video ready to share

"Derby have scored three goals at Pride Park all season. Wrexham conceded one away from home in the matches that were not at West Ham."