Everton vs Ipswich Town: late goals, level on six points
Everton vs Ipswich Town at the Hill Dickinson Stadium on Saturday afternoon brings together two clubs whose league matches keep being decided in the final ten minutes. Everton have scored three league goals from the eightieth minute onwards, two of them in stoppage time to rescue draws. Ipswich have also scored three from the eightieth minute, and both of their league wins were settled in the ninetieth. The sides are level on six points, Everton ninth and Ipswich tenth, and whatever happens before the eightieth minute on Saturday, neither will assume it is over.
They reach six points in completely different ways. Everton are unbeaten in the league with one win and three draws. Ipswich have won two and lost two, and their goal difference of minus three owes much to one very heavy afternoon.
Everton: three draws in a row, and late goals
Everton opened with a 2-0 home win over Crystal Palace, through Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall and Thierno Barry. Since then they have drawn three times. At Bournemouth, James Tarkowski equalised in the first minute of stoppage time. At home to Manchester United, Tyrique George made it 1-1 on eighty-three minutes, Benjamin Sesko put United ahead again on eighty-eight, and Ainsley Maitland-Niles equalised in the sixth minute of stoppage time. Last Saturday they drew 0-0 at Tottenham.
Everton have averaged 41.7% of the ball and have conceded fourteen shots on target in four league matches, the fifth-fewest in the division. Five different players have scored their five league goals. Their last three matches in all competitions have been draws; before that, they beat Preston North End 4-0 in the Carabao Cup second round.
Ipswich: ninetieth-minute winners and a heavy defeat
Ipswich beat Sunderland 2-1 on the opening weekend when Jack Clarke scored in the ninetieth minute. A week later they lost 5-2 at Manchester United, who took thirty-three shots against them that day. They lost 2-0 at home to Liverpool on 4 September, when Alexander Isak scored twice in the first nine minutes, and then won 3-2 at Crystal Palace last Saturday, again in the ninetieth minute, through the substitute Zian Flemming.
The defensive numbers are the concern. Ipswich have conceded ten league goals and sixty-five shots, and opponents have put twenty-six on target against them, the joint-highest total in the league. The attacking return is healthier: seven goals, with Emersonn and Leif Davis on two each and Clarke, Chuba Akpom and Flemming one apiece.
Venue matters in this fixture too. Everton’s two home league matches have brought a 2-0 win over Crystal Palace and the 2-2 draw with Manchester United, four goals scored and two conceded at the Hill Dickinson Stadium. Ipswich’s two away league matches were the 5-2 defeat at Old Trafford and the 3-2 win at Selhurst Park: five goals scored and seven conceded.
- Everton: ninth, 6 points, 5 scored and 3 conceded, unbeaten in the league
- Ipswich Town: tenth, 6 points, 7 scored and 10 conceded
- Everton’s last three league matches: 1-1, 2-2 and 0-0
- Both of Ipswich’s league wins were decided by a goal in the ninetieth minute
- Each side has scored three league goals from the 80th minute onwards
What the match turns on
Everton have averaged well under half of the ball this season and have not lost a league match. The question for them is whether a side that has scored five league goals in four matches can create enough against a defence that has conceded ten.
For Ipswich it is the opposite problem. Everton’s league opponents have taken fifty-six shots in four matches, and the goals Ipswich have conceded have come throughout matches rather than at the end, five in the first half and five in the second.
Clean sheets separate the sides as well. Everton have kept two in the league, against Crystal Palace and at Tottenham; Ipswich have not kept one in any of their four league matches.
Both clubs have Carabao Cup third-round ties first. Ipswich host Arsenal on Tuesday 15 September, and Everton host Wolverhampton Wanderers on Wednesday 16 September. The league match kicks off at 15:00 on Saturday.
Simulate the match before kick-off
Two teams who keep scoring after the eightieth minute make any prediction fragile until the final whistle. Run Everton vs Ipswich Town through the AI simulator on this site and watch how often the late goal arrives.
- Run this fixture through the AI match simulator, in tactical view or in the physics arena
- Simulate this week’s Carabao Cup third-round ties, including Ipswich Town against Arsenal
- Play the remaining 34 rounds from the real table and the real fixture list
- Open the line-up builder for both clubs before you kick off a simulation
- Turn an arena simulation into a vertical video ready to share
"Everton equalise late. Ipswich win late. Nobody at the Hill Dickinson Stadium should leave early."