Ipswich vs Fulham: a side that always has a winner

Ipswich Town vs Fulham at Portman Road, 15:00 BST on Saturday 10 October, brings together a side that never draws and a side that has not won. Ipswich have played five, won two and lost three. Fulham have played five and taken two points, both from draws.

Ipswich will be without Abdul Fatawu, who was sent off for a second yellow card in the 1-0 defeat at Everton and serves a one-match suspension. They finished that match with ten men and more shots on target than the side that beat them.

Ipswich: two wins, three defeats, nothing in between

Ipswich beat Sunderland 2-1 on the opening weekend, lost 5-2 at Manchester United, lost 2-0 at home to Liverpool, won 3-2 at Crystal Palace and lost 1-0 at Everton. Seven scored, eleven conceded, six points, and every one of their matches has produced a winner.

At home the record is a win and a defeat, two scored and three conceded. They have not kept a clean sheet all season and have failed to score twice, both times in defeat. It is a side that plays open matches and has had the worse of three of them.

Fulham: two draws and an own goal

Fulham lost 3-2 at home to Chelsea, 1-0 at Sunderland and 3-2 at home to Crystal Palace, then drew 0-0 at Liverpool and 1-1 with Manchester United. Five goals scored across the season, and the most recent of them was put into his own net by Lisandro Martinez. The last goal a Fulham player scored was on matchday three.

Away from home they have not scored at all: a 1-0 defeat at Sunderland and a goalless draw at Anfield. That draw at Liverpool is also the only clean sheet they have kept. The last two matches have steadied them without solving the problem at the other end.

• Ipswich: 6 points from their first five, 7 scored, 11 conceded, no draws
• Ipswich have not kept a clean sheet
• Abdul Fatawu (Ipswich) serves a one-match suspension after his sending-off at Everton
• Fulham: 2 points from their first five, 5 scored, 8 conceded, no wins
• Fulham away: 0 scored in two matches
• Kick-off: Saturday 10 October, 15:00 BST, Portman Road

Last time out

Ipswich lost 1-0 at Everton on 19 September. Thierno Barry scored after eleven minutes and Everton held on despite twenty-one shots and two on target of their own. Fatawu was booked on thirty-five minutes and sent off for a second yellow on sixty-seven, and ten-man Ipswich finished with four shots on target to Everton’s two.

Fulham drew 1-1 with Manchester United on 20 September. Lisandro Martinez turned the ball into his own net on sixty-three minutes and Matheus Cunha equalised from outside the box on eighty-nine. United had twenty-nine shots and thirteen corners; Fulham had twelve shots and three yellow cards.

Where the table stands

After five matches Ipswich are eleventh on six points and Fulham nineteenth on two, level with Tottenham at the bottom. The gap between them is four points, which is exactly the size of Fulham’s problem: they need a first win, and Ipswich have conceded in every match.

Ipswich’s goal difference is minus four and Fulham’s minus three. On the balance of their seasons the two sides are closer than the table says.

What decides it

Fulham have been hard to beat for two matches and hard to score against for one. Ipswich have conceded in every match they have played. The most likely thing to break is Fulham’s goal drought, and the likeliest place for it to break is against a defence that has not kept anyone out all season.

Ipswich’s record says someone wins at Portman Road. Fulham’s says they have not won anywhere. One of those runs ends on Saturday.

Fulham’s defence is not the problem it was in August. After conceding seven in their first three matches they have conceded one in their last two, and that one arrived in the eighty-ninth minute. The problem is entirely at the other end: they have not scored away from home at all, and Portman Road is an away ground. Ipswich, who have scored in three of five, will expect to be the side that finds the net first.

Simulate it before it happens

Ipswich have not drawn and Fulham have not won. On the Premier League simulator you can run this fixture now and see which streak ends first.

• Play the remaining 33 rounds from the real table and the real fixture list
• Run this fixture through the AI match simulator, in tactical view or in the physics arena
• Open the line-up builder for both clubs before you kick off a simulation
• Turn an arena simulation into a vertical video ready to share

"Every Ipswich match this season has had a winner. Fulham have not been the winner of any of theirs."