Liverpool vs Forest: a visitor who has won here twice

Nottingham Forest arrive at Anfield on Saturday lunchtime having lost twice at home to the same opponent in four days. Leeds beat them 1-0 at the City Ground on the opening weekend and then 2-0 in the same stadium in the League Cup on Tuesday, with Daniel James scoring on 50 minutes and James Justin on 75.

It is the worst possible preparation for a trip to Anfield, and yet the head-to-head record makes this a stranger fixture than the form table suggests.

Forest have won at Anfield twice in five meetings

The last five matches between these two are level: two wins each and a draw. Two of those Forest wins came at Anfield. They won 3-0 there in November 2025 and 1-0 there in September 2024.

Liverpool won the most recent meeting, 1-0 at the City Ground in February 2026, and also won 1-0 there in March 2024. The draw was 1-1, again at the City Ground, in January 2025.

Read that sequence carefully and a pattern appears that runs against intuition: the away side has won four of the last five. Forest have not beaten Liverpool at home in this run; Liverpool have not beaten Forest at Anfield in it either.

Liverpool's opening weekend

Andoni Iraola's side drew 2-2 at Newcastle in a match they spent most of chasing. They fell behind in the 5th minute, equalised through Cody Gakpo on 55, went behind again two minutes later, and drew level only in the 90+9th minute through a Dominik Szoboszlai penalty.

The volume was extraordinary and the return was not. Liverpool had twenty-seven shots — the highest count of any team in the round — and put seven on target. Newcastle had thirteen attempts and four on target, and scored twice from them.

A point away from home after twice falling behind is what sides with big ambitions tend to salvage. Twenty-seven shots for two goals is the figure the coaching staff will want corrected, and a Saturday lunchtime at Anfield against a side low on confidence is a reasonable place to start.

Forest's problem is at both ends

Forest have not scored yet this season. They lost 1-0 at home in the league and 2-0 at home in the cup, which means 180 minutes at the City Ground without finding the net and three goals conceded there.

The cup defeat matters beyond the result. Losing twice in four days to the same opponent, in your own stadium, tends to affect a squad in ways the league table does not show — and it also means minutes in the legs that Liverpool, who had no midweek fixture, did not have to spend.

The counterargument is the one already made: this is a fixture where recent history has favoured the visitor, and Forest have the specific experience of winning at Anfield twice inside two years.

The shape of the match

Liverpool will have the ball. They had 60.8% of it at St James' Park and will likely have more on Saturday, against a side that has spent its opening week defending. The question is the one Newcastle answered well: how much of that possession becomes a clear chance.

Forest's route back into form is the one they used to win at Anfield in November 2025 — a compact block, quick transitions and ruthlessness with the few openings that appear. Executing it after two defeats and a midweek match is harder than describing it.

The bookmakers have Liverpool at around -195, which is the shortest price of any home side this weekend apart from Manchester United. That reflects the form far more than the record.

What is actually at stake

Liverpool sit tenth on a point, level with Newcastle and behind nine sides on three. A win moves them into the group at the top; another draw would leave them two points from nine after two matches, which is not a crisis but is not the start they planned.

Forest are seventeenth with nothing. A goal would be a start. A point at Anfield would be more than that, and the record says it is not the fantasy the last week makes it sound.

The lunchtime slot

Kick-off is 12:30 BST, the earliest of the round, which historically favours nobody in particular but does compress the preparation for a side that played on Tuesday. Forest did; Liverpool did not.

It also means the match is played before the rest of Saturday's programme, so whatever happens sets the tone for the day rather than responding to it. Liverpool sit tenth on a point after the opening round; Forest are seventeenth on none, one of six clubs yet to score.

"Forest have not scored in 180 minutes and have lost twice at home to Leeds in four days. They have also won at Anfield twice in the last five meetings. Both things are true at once."