Middlesbrough vs Wolves: third against fifth on Saturday

Middlesbrough vs Wolverhampton Wanderers at the Riverside Stadium, 15:00 BST on Saturday 10 October, is the biggest match of matchday nine in the Championship: third against fifth, and two sides who have scored in every match they have played. Middlesbrough are unbeaten in six. Wolves have won their last two and have a game in hand.

Middlesbrough have not lost at home this season. Wolves have not lost anywhere except at West Ham United, where they went down 4-2 at the start of September.

Middlesbrough: unbeaten at the Riverside

Middlesbrough beat Lincoln City 2-1, lost 2-1 at Blackburn Rovers, beat West Bromwich Albion 3-1, drew 1-1 at Burnley, won 1-0 at Queens Park Rangers, beat Norwich City 4-3, drew 2-2 with Millwall and drew 2-2 at Birmingham City. Sixteen scored, twelve conceded, fifteen points.

At home they have won three and drawn one, scoring eleven and conceding seven. They have scored in every match, but they have kept only one clean sheet all season, and their last two have both finished 2-2.

Wolves: goals and a game in hand

Wolves drew 2-2 with Blackburn, won 3-1 at Preston North End, beat Stoke City 4-1, lost 4-2 at West Ham, drew 2-2 at Birmingham, won 1-0 at Sheffield United and beat West Brom 1-0. Fifteen scored, ten conceded, fourteen points from seven matches.

Away from home they have won two, drawn one and lost one, eight scored and seven conceded. They have scored in all seven of their matches and kept clean sheets in their last two, both 1-0 wins.

• Middlesbrough: 15 points from their first eight, 16 scored, 12 conceded, unbeaten in six
• Middlesbrough at home: won 3, drawn 1, 11 scored, 7 conceded
• Wolves: 14 points from their first seven, 15 scored, 10 conceded
• Wolves have a game in hand, at home to Portsmouth on 20 October
• Kick-off: Saturday 10 October, 15:00 BST, Riverside Stadium

Last time out

Middlesbrough drew 2-2 at Birmingham City on 19 September, a second consecutive 2-2 after the draw with Millwall. Both followed a 4-3 win over Norwich City.

Wolves beat West Brom 1-0 at Molineux on 20 September in a derby between two sides in the top six. It was their second clean sheet in a row.

Where the table stands

After eight matches Middlesbrough are third on fifteen points, level with West Ham and two behind Swansea City. Wolves are fifth on fourteen from seven. A Wolves win would take them above Middlesbrough with a game still to play; a Middlesbrough win would open a four-point gap and keep them in touch with the top two.

Two halves of a start

Middlesbrough have improved slightly as the season has gone on. Seven points from their first four matches, eight from their last four, with nine goals scored and seven conceded in that second stretch. Six of their eight matches have produced three goals or more.

Wolves have seven points from their last four matches, with six scored and six conceded, and they come into this on two consecutive 1-0 wins. Their early-season matches were much more open, including the 4-1 against Stoke and the 4-2 defeat at West Ham. The version of Wolves that turns up at the Riverside is likely to be the tighter one.

What decides it

Both sides score, and Middlesbrough have been conceding more than a team this high usually does. Wolves’ recent defensive record, two clean sheets in two, is the variable that could change the match. If it holds, a side that concedes one or two at the Riverside every week will find the going harder.

This is also the first meeting this season between two sides who can realistically finish in the automatic promotion places. The result will be read that way.

There is one more pattern worth noting. Four of Middlesbrough’s eight matches have been decided by a single goal, and two more ended 2-2. Wolves’ two away wins were 3-1 at Preston and 1-0 at Sheffield United, and their only away defeat was the 4-2 at West Ham. Both sides have been in tight matches more often than their goal totals suggest, and two of Middlesbrough’s four one-goal games were at the Riverside, a 2-1 against Lincoln City and the 4-3 against Norwich City.

Simulate it before it happens

Middlesbrough are unbeaten at home and Wolves have scored in every match. On the Championship simulator you can play this promotion meeting now and carry the table forward from it.

• Play the remaining 38 rounds from the real table and the real fixture list
• Run this fixture through the AI match simulator, in tactical view or in the physics arena
• Open the line-up builder for both clubs before you kick off a simulation
• Turn an arena simulation into a vertical video ready to share

"Middlesbrough have not lost at the Riverside. Wolves have not failed to score anywhere."