Preston vs Millwall: one win in eight for the home side

Preston North End vs Millwall at Deepdale, 15:00 BST on Saturday 10 October, is a match between a side that has won once all season and a side that has not played a close match until very recently. Preston are twenty-third with four points. Millwall are twelfth and have drawn their last two, both 2-2.

Preston have not kept a clean sheet in eight matches. Millwall have scored in seven of their eight and conceded in five.

Preston: one win and a lot of defeats

Preston lost 2-1 at Bolton Wanderers, 3-1 at home to Wolverhampton Wanderers, 1-0 at Charlton Athletic and 3-1 at home to Bristol City, then beat Blackburn Rovers 2-1. They lost 2-1 at Watford and 1-0 at home to Lincoln City, and drew 2-2 at Queens Park Rangers. Eight scored, fifteen conceded, four points.

At home they have one win and three defeats, four scored and eight conceded. Six of their eight matches have been defeats, all of them by one or two goals. It is a side that competes and loses, which is a problem that is usually fixed by one result.

Millwall: extremes, and then two draws

Millwall won 2-0 at Bristol City and beat Norwich City 3-0, lost 5-1 at Southampton and 3-0 at home to Wrexham, beat Bolton Wanderers 4-0, lost 3-1 at Blackburn, and drew 2-2 at Middlesbrough and 2-2 with West Ham United. Fifteen scored, fifteen conceded, eleven points.

None of their eight matches has been decided by a single goal. Away from home they have a win, a draw and two defeats, six scored and ten conceded, and five of those ten came at Southampton.

• Preston: 4 points from their first eight, 8 scored, 15 conceded, no clean sheets
• Preston at home: won 1, lost 3, 4 scored, 8 conceded
• Millwall: 11 points from their first eight, 15 scored, 15 conceded
• Millwall away: won 1, drawn 1, lost 2, 6 scored, 10 conceded
• Kick-off: Saturday 10 October, 15:00 BST, Deepdale

Last time out

Preston drew 2-2 at Queens Park Rangers on 19 September, a point that ended a run of two defeats. It was the first time this season they had taken anything away from home.

Millwall drew 2-2 with West Ham at The Den on the same day. They led 2-0 through Caleb Taylor and Camiel Neghli before West Ham came back through Mohamadou Kante and Konstantinos Mavropanos; Millwall had a third of the ball and nineteen shots.

Where the table stands

After eight matches Preston are twenty-third on four points, level with Burnley at the bottom and one behind Derby County. Millwall are twelfth on eleven. A Preston win would lift them to seven points; a Millwall win would take them to fourteen, the total currently held by the side in sixth.

Two halves of a start

Preston did not take a point from their first four matches, scoring three and conceding nine. From their last four they have taken four, with five scored and six conceded. It is slow progress, but it is progress, and it has included their only win and their first away point.

Millwall took six points from their first four and five from their last four, and none of their eight matches has been decided by a single goal. Seven of them have produced at least three goals. Preston’s matches have also tended to be open, with six of their eight producing three goals or more.

What decides it

Millwall are likely to create chances; they had nineteen shots against West Ham, four more than the side at the top of the scoring charts. Preston will concede, on the evidence of every match they have played. The question is whether Preston can score enough at a ground where they have managed four goals in four matches.

Millwall’s two recent draws were their first close results of the season. A return to the pattern that preceded them would favour the side with more firepower.

Preston’s goals have been spread thinly: they have scored more than once in only two of their eight matches, the 2-1 win over Blackburn and the 2-2 at Queens Park Rangers. Millwall have scored at least twice in five of theirs.

Simulate it before it happens

Preston have won once and Millwall rarely play a close match. On the Championship simulator you can run this fixture now and take the real table forward.

• Play the remaining 38 rounds from the real table and the real fixture list
• Run this fixture through the AI match simulator, in tactical view or in the physics arena
• Open the line-up builder for both clubs before you kick off a simulation
• Turn an arena simulation into a vertical video ready to share

"Preston have not kept a clean sheet all season. Millwall have scored in seven of their eight matches."