Southampton vs Portsmouth: a perfect home record at stake

Southampton vs Portsmouth at St Mary’s, 12:00 BST on Sunday 11 October, is the south coast derby, and on current form it pits the best home side in the Championship against a Portsmouth team that has started to find its feet. Southampton have won all four home matches and scored fifteen goals in them. Portsmouth are unbeaten in three.

Southampton arrive after a 2-1 defeat at Wrexham, their second away defeat. They have not won away from home all season.

Southampton: perfect at home, winless away

Southampton lost 2-1 at Watford on the opening day, then beat Stoke City 3-1 and Millwall 5-1, drew 1-1 at Birmingham City and at Lincoln City, beat Swansea City 3-1 and Bristol City 4-1, and lost 2-1 at Wrexham. Nineteen scored, ten conceded, fourteen points.

The split is extraordinary. At St Mary’s: four wins, fifteen scored, four conceded. Away: two draws, two defeats, four scored, six conceded. They have scored in every match but have not kept a single clean sheet, home or away.

Portsmouth: steadier, and a game in hand

Portsmouth lost 3-1 at home to Queens Park Rangers, won 3-1 at Lincoln, lost 2-1 at Bristol City and 2-0 at home to Derby County, beat Cardiff City 2-0, and drew 0-0 at Charlton Athletic and 2-2 with Blackburn Rovers. Nine scored, ten conceded, eight points from seven matches.

Away from home they have a win, a draw and a defeat, four scored and three conceded. Their recent run has been built on not losing: two clean sheets in their last four, and no defeat since 1 September.

• Southampton: 14 points from their first eight, 19 scored, 10 conceded
• Southampton at home: won 4, 15 scored, 4 conceded
• Southampton have not kept a clean sheet all season
• Portsmouth: 8 points from their first seven, 9 scored, 10 conceded, unbeaten in three
• Portsmouth have a game in hand, at Wolverhampton Wanderers on 20 October
• Kick-off: Sunday 11 October, 12:00 BST, St Mary’s

Last time out

Southampton lost 2-1 at Wrexham on 19 September. It ended a run of two wins and kept them without an away win this season.

Portsmouth drew 2-2 with Blackburn at Fratton Park the same afternoon, their third match without defeat after the 2-0 win over Cardiff and the goalless draw at Charlton.

Where the table stands

After eight matches Southampton are fourth on fourteen points, three behind Swansea at the top. Portsmouth are nineteenth on eight from seven, three points above the relegation zone with a game in hand. A Portsmouth win would take them to eleven and into mid-table; a Southampton win would keep them in touch with the automatic places.

Two halves of a start

Southampton have been remarkably consistent: seven points from their first four matches and seven from their last four, with ten goals scored in the first run and nine in the second. Six of their eight matches have produced three goals or more. Only two have been decided by a single goal, and both were away defeats.

Portsmouth have taken five points from their last four, with four scored and four conceded, after losing three of their first four matches and conceding eight goals in them. Only one of their seven matches has been decided by a single goal. They have tightened up considerably since August, and St Mary’s will test that more than anywhere they have played.

What decides it

Southampton’s home record says they win, and usually by two or more. Portsmouth’s recent defensive form, and the fact that Southampton have not kept a clean sheet, says Portsmouth will probably score. The most likely derby on these numbers is one with goals at both ends and a home win.

Derbies do not always follow the numbers. But no side has come to St Mary’s this season and left with anything.

Southampton’s home wins came against Stoke City, Millwall, Swansea City and Bristol City, and the biggest was the 5-1 over Millwall. Their opponents in that run included the side currently top of the table. Portsmouth’s only away win came at Lincoln City, 3-1, on the second weekend of the season.

Simulate it before it happens

Southampton have won every home match and Portsmouth are unbeaten in three. On the Championship simulator you can play the derby now and take the real table forward from it.

• Play the remaining 38 rounds from the real table and the real fixture list
• Run this fixture through the AI match simulator, in tactical view or in the physics arena
• Open the line-up builder for both clubs before you kick off a simulation
• Turn an arena simulation into a vertical video ready to share

"Southampton have won all four at St Mary’s and scored fifteen goals doing it. They have not kept a clean sheet anywhere."