Watford vs Burnley: Burnley still looking for a first win

Watford vs Burnley at Vicarage Road, 15:00 BST on Saturday 10 October, is a meeting of two sides in the bottom five, and one of them is still waiting for a first win. Burnley are bottom of the Championship with four points from eight, all from draws. Watford are twentieth on eight.

Burnley have scored in every match they have played and kept no clean sheets. Watford have kept none either.

Watford: better at home

Watford beat Southampton 2-1 on the opening day, drew 1-1 at Wrexham and 1-1 with West Ham United, lost 2-0 at Swansea City and 1-0 at West Bromwich Albion, beat Preston North End 2-1, lost 2-1 at home to Stoke City and 1-0 at Bristol City. Seven scored, ten conceded, eight points.

At home they have won two, drawn one and lost one, scoring six and conceding five. Away from home they have scored once in four matches. Everything positive about Watford’s season has happened at Vicarage Road.

Burnley: four draws, four defeats

Burnley drew 2-2 with West Ham, lost 3-1 at West Brom and 4-1 at Norwich City, drew 1-1 with Middlesbrough, lost 2-1 at home to Bristol City, drew 1-1 at Wrexham, lost 3-1 at Swansea and drew 1-1 with Derby County. Nine scored, seventeen conceded, four points.

Away from home they have one draw and three defeats, four scored and eleven conceded. They have scored in all eight matches, which is more than several clubs above them can say, but they have conceded at least once in every one of them and three or more in three.

• Watford: 8 points from their first eight, 7 scored, 10 conceded, no clean sheets
• Watford at home: won 2, drawn 1, lost 1, 6 scored, 5 conceded
• Burnley: 4 points from their first eight, 9 scored, 17 conceded, no wins
• Burnley away: drawn 1, lost 3, 4 scored, 11 conceded
• Kick-off: Saturday 10 October, 15:00 BST, Vicarage Road

Last time out

Watford lost 1-0 at Bristol City on 18 September, their second consecutive defeat and a fourth in five matches. They have failed to score in three of their four away games.

Burnley drew 1-1 at home with Derby County the following day, a meeting of two sides in the relegation zone that neither could win. It was Burnley’s fourth draw of the season and their eighth match without a win.

Where the table stands

After eight matches Watford are twentieth on eight points, three above the relegation zone. Burnley are twenty-fourth on four, level with Preston North End and below them on goal difference. A Burnley win would take them to seven points; a Watford win would open a seven-point gap between the two.

Two halves of a start

Watford took five points from their first four matches and three from their last four, scoring three and conceding five in that second run. Five of their eight matches have been decided by a single goal, and only three have produced three goals or more. They are rarely beaten heavily; they are rarely winning either.

Burnley have two points from their first four and two from their last four. They conceded ten in the first four and seven in the last four, so the defence is improving slowly, but the results have not followed. Only one of their eight matches has been decided by a single goal, which says they are either drawing or losing clearly.

What decides it

Watford’s home form against Burnley’s away form is the most favourable matchup Watford have had in weeks: they score at home, and Burnley concede almost three a game on the road. Burnley’s one consistent strength, scoring in every match, is also what makes a draw plausible.

For Burnley, the first win cannot come soon enough. For Watford, a home win would stop a slide and move them away from the bottom four.

Burnley’s draws have come against a mixed list: West Ham United and Middlesbrough, two of the top three, and Wrexham and Derby County. They can take points from anyone and have not yet beaten anyone. Watford have beaten Southampton and Preston North End at home, and those are still their only two wins of the season.

Simulate it before it happens

Burnley have not won and Watford have lost their last two. On the Championship simulator you can play Saturday’s match now and see whether Burnley’s first win arrives.

• Play the remaining 38 rounds from the real table and the real fixture list
• Run this fixture through the AI match simulator, in tactical view or in the physics arena
• Open the line-up builder for both clubs before you kick off a simulation
• Turn an arena simulation into a vertical video ready to share

"Burnley have scored in all eight of their matches and won none of them."