Hull vs Everton: two defences that rarely give anything

Hull City vs Everton at the MKM Stadium, 14:00 BST on Sunday 11 October, is likely to be the lowest-scoring match of the weekend on current evidence. Hull have played twice at home and not conceded. Everton have conceded three goals in five matches, the joint-fewest in the division, and have not lost.

Hull arrive after the first defeat of their season, 2-1 at Newcastle United, in which they had twenty-one shots and fell behind twice inside seven minutes. Everton beat Ipswich Town 1-0 with twenty-one shots and two on target.

Hull: a clean home record

Hull beat Manchester United 2-0 on the opening weekend, won 1-0 at Coventry City, drew 0-0 with Aston Villa, drew 2-2 at Chelsea and lost 2-1 at Newcastle. Six scored, four conceded, eight points and three clean sheets.

At home they have played two, won one and drawn one, scored two and conceded none. They have had less of the ball than their opponent in every match this season and still find ways to take points, which is the most striking thing about a promoted side’s start.

Everton: unbeaten on few goals

Everton beat Crystal Palace 2-0, drew 1-1 at Bournemouth, drew 2-2 with Manchester United, drew 0-0 at Tottenham and beat Ipswich 1-0. Six scored, three conceded, nine points, three clean sheets, and no match in which they have scored more than twice.

Away from home they have two draws from two, one goal scored and one conceded. It is the most careful away record in the division, and it is the one that faces a home side that has not conceded yet.

• Hull City: 8 points from their first five, 6 scored, 4 conceded, 3 clean sheets
• Hull at home: won 1, drawn 1, 2 scored, 0 conceded
• Everton: 9 points from their first five, 6 scored, 3 conceded, unbeaten
• Everton away: drawn 2, 1 scored, 1 conceded
• Kick-off: Sunday 11 October, 14:00 BST, MKM Stadium

Last time out

Hull lost 2-1 at Newcastle United on 19 September. Joe Willock and Lewis Hall scored inside seven minutes, both assisted by Harvey Barnes, and Konstantinos Tzolakis saved a Yoane Wissa penalty in first-half stoppage time. Mohamed-Ali Cho pulled one back on sixty-seven and Hull finished with twenty-one shots to Newcastle’s twelve.

Everton beat Ipswich Town 1-0 the same afternoon. Thierno Barry scored on eleven minutes, assisted by James Tarkowski, and Ipswich played the last twenty-three minutes with ten men. Everton had twenty-one shots and two on target, and Jordan Pickford made four saves.

Where the table stands

After five matches Hull are eighth on eight points and Everton seventh on nine. They are separated by a point and both sit in a group of clubs between eight and nine points that stretches from fourth to ninth.

A win for either side would lift them into that group’s upper end, within touching distance of Brighton in third. A draw, which is what both sets of numbers point to, would keep them where they are.

What decides it

Everything about these two points to a tight match. Hull’s two home games have produced two goals, Everton’s two away games have produced two goals, and both sides are comfortable without the ball. The first goal, if there is one, is likely to matter more here than almost anywhere else on the fixture list.

The difference may be finishing. Hull outshot Newcastle and lost; Everton outshot Ipswich badly and won by one. Whichever side converts the few chances this match is likely to produce will probably take all three points.

The numbers on both sides lean the same way. Hull have kept three clean sheets in five and Everton three in five. Hull’s matches have averaged two goals, Everton’s under two. Of the ten matches the two clubs have played between them, only three produced more than two goals: Hull’s 2-2 at Chelsea, Hull’s 2-1 at Newcastle and Everton’s 2-2 with Manchester United. A 1-0 either way would fit comfortably into both seasons.

Hull have not lost at home and Everton have not won on the road. That makes the home side marginal favourites on form, if not on the table.

Simulate it before it happens

Hull have not conceded at home and Everton have conceded three all season. On the Premier League simulator you can run this fixture now and see whether anyone scores.

• Play the remaining 33 rounds from the real table and the real fixture list
• Run this fixture through the AI match simulator, in tactical view or in the physics arena
• Open the line-up builder for both clubs before you kick off a simulation
• Turn an arena simulation into a vertical video ready to share

"Hull’s home matches have produced two goals. Everton’s away matches have produced two goals. Something has to give."