Supercomputer · Pro League

Plays the rest of the season 10,000 times and shows how often each club wins.

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A Belgian format the projection can finally take at face value

This is the first Belgian campaign in 17 years without play-offs. The Pro League has expanded to 18 clubs playing a straight 34-match double round-robin, and whoever tops the table at the end of May is champion. No championship round, no second phase, no halved points, no split fixtures drawn after the fact.

That changes what a projected lead is worth. Under the old system a regular-season advantage was cut in half before the decisive matches; now every point banked in August is still on the board in May. Four European tickets come off the top of the table and the bottom two go down to the Challenger Pro League.

Belgian Pro League projection: common questions

Do the Belgian play-offs still exist?

No. The Belgian federation abolished them from 2026/27 after 17 seasons. The Champions' Play-offs, the halved points and the various Europe play-off groups are gone, and the title now belongs to whichever club finishes first in a single 18-team table.

How many teams are relegated from the Belgian Pro League?

Two. The clubs finishing 17th and 18th drop straight into the Challenger Pro League. The new format does not include a relegation play-off, so the bottom of the projected table maps directly onto who goes down rather than who has more football to play.

How many European places does the Belgian league have?

Four come from the table itself. The champion goes into the Champions League league phase, the runner-up into Champions League qualifying, and third and fourth enter Europa League and Conference League qualifying respectively. The Belgian Cup also delivers a European berth outside the league standings.

▸How does the supercomputer work?

Every remaining fixture is simulated with a Poisson model: each club gets an attack rating and a defence rating from the goals it has scored and conceded this season, and the expected goals of a match come from combining one side's attack with the other's defence, plus a moderate home advantage.

Before a ball is kicked the model does not start from zero: each club begins with a prior strength built from last season's finish and the market value of its squad, with the tails capped so no extreme is absurd. That starting point hands over weight to real results as they arrive, and by around matchday ten only the actual goals are talking.

The remaining season is played 10,000 times in a separate browser process, so the page never freezes. The title, top-four, top-six and relegation percentages are simply how often each outcome happened across those 10,000 seasons, and each club's points range covers the central 90% of its simulated finishes.

What the model does not know: injuries, transfers, sanctions, European fixtures or motivation. It uses goals and only goals — which is why it is in beta.