Supercomputer · Brasileirão

Plays the rest of the season 10,000 times and shows how often each club wins.

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Brasileirão Série A: 38 rounds and nothing after them

The Brasileirão is one of the few big leagues where the projection needs no asterisk. Twenty clubs play 38 rounds across the calendar year, and whoever tops the table on the final Sunday is champion — no play-off, no aggregate table, no Apertura and Clausura. The title column here really does mean the title.

The continental columns read differently from Europe. Five Libertadores places now come through the league: four straight into the 2027 group stage, the fifth into the preliminary rounds, with the next six unqualified clubs taking Sudamericana berths. At the other end four clubs go down to Série B, a deep drop zone that keeps the bottom third nervous into November.

Brasileirão: frequently asked questions

How many Libertadores places does the Brasileirão give in 2026?

Five. The top four qualify directly for the 2027 Copa Libertadores group stage and the fifth-placed club enters the preliminary rounds. That is a change from the old G-6: the Copa do Brasil now supplies two berths as well, its winner going straight into the groups and the runner-up into the qualifiers.

Are there play-offs to decide the Brazilian champion?

No. Brazil settles its national title on points alone across 38 matchdays, which is unusual in South America — Colombia, Peru and Ecuador all bolt a knockout or group phase onto the end of their seasons. That is why the first column on this page is labelled title rather than 1st place.

How many clubs are relegated from Série A?

Four, straight from the final table, with no play-off and no multi-season average involved. They swap places with the four clubs coming up from Série B. Because the drop is decided by the same 38-game table as the title, the relegation percentages come from exactly the same simulated standings.

▸How does the supercomputer work?

Every remaining fixture is simulated with a Poisson model: each club gets an attack rating and a defence rating from the goals it has scored and conceded this season, and the expected goals of a match come from combining one side's attack with the other's defence, plus a moderate home advantage.

Before a ball is kicked the model does not start from zero: each club begins with a prior strength built from last season's finish and the market value of its squad, with the tails capped so no extreme is absurd. That starting point hands over weight to real results as they arrive, and by around matchday ten only the actual goals are talking.

The remaining season is played 10,000 times in a separate browser process, so the page never freezes. The title, top-four, top-six and relegation percentages are simply how often each outcome happened across those 10,000 seasons, and each club's points range covers the central 90% of its simulated finishes.

What the model does not know: injuries, transfers, sanctions, European fixtures or motivation. It uses goals and only goals — which is why it is in beta.