Supercomputer · Liga F

Plays the rest of the season 10,000 times and shows how often each club wins.

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Liga F: one dominant name, and a real contest underneath

Sixteen clubs, 30 matches, a plain table with no split or play-off. The complication sits at the top: Barcelona have won the last seven Liga F titles, so the championship probability is close to settled before a ball is kicked and the model's real task is pricing how near anyone else can get.

The rows that actually move are European qualification and survival. Spain's top two enter the Women's Champions League league phase and third place goes into the third qualifying round, which makes the stretch between second and fourth the most contested part of the table. The bottom two, 15th and 16th, drop to Primera Federacion.

Liga F projection: common questions

How many Liga F clubs reach the Women's Champions League?

Three. The top two go directly into the league phase of the following season's competition, and third place enters the third qualifying round. Fourth place earns nothing in Europe, which is why the margin between third and fourth is the sharpest cliff edge in the table.

How many teams are relegated from Liga F?

Two. The clubs finishing 15th and 16th are relegated to Primera Federacion, and there is no play-off to save either of them. They are replaced by that division's champion, who goes up automatically, plus the winner of a post-season play-off contested by the next eligible clubs in the standings.

Why is the Liga F title projection so one-sided?

Because the recent record is one-sided. Barcelona have taken seven consecutive league titles, the longest active run in Spanish women's football. A model that anchors on last season's finish and squad strength before match data accumulates will inevitably reflect that, and the early-season table rarely contradicts it.

▸How does the supercomputer work?

Every remaining fixture is simulated with a Poisson model: each club gets an attack rating and a defence rating from the goals it has scored and conceded this season, and the expected goals of a match come from combining one side's attack with the other's defence, plus a moderate home advantage.

Before a ball is kicked the model does not start from zero: each club begins with a prior strength built from last season's finish and the market value of its squad, with the tails capped so no extreme is absurd. That starting point hands over weight to real results as they arrive, and by around matchday ten only the actual goals are talking.

The remaining season is played 10,000 times in a separate browser process, so the page never freezes. The title, top-four, top-six and relegation percentages are simply how often each outcome happened across those 10,000 seasons, and each club's points range covers the central 90% of its simulated finishes.

What the model does not know: injuries, transfers, sanctions, European fixtures or motivation. It uses goals and only goals — which is why it is in beta.