Supercomputer · Super League

Plays the rest of the season 10,000 times and shows how often each club wins.

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The Greek season is two competitions, and the split changes the maths

Fourteen clubs play a 26-match regular season, then the league breaks into three separate mini-leagues. The top four contest a championship round of six further matches for the title and the main European places; fifth to eighth play their own six-match round for one extra European ticket; the bottom six play ten matches to settle two relegation places.

How points travel across the split is not uniform, and it matters. The championship round and the relegation play-out both carry regular-season points over in full. The 5th-to-8th Europe play-off is the exception: those clubs start it with their points halved. None of those fixtures exist until the regular season is complete.

Greek Super League projection: common questions

How is the Greek Super League title decided?

Not by the regular-season table. The top four qualify for a championship play-off and play each other twice more, six matches per club, carrying their 26-game points totals across in full. Whoever leads at the end of that round is the champion of Greece.

Are points halved in the Greek play-offs?

Only in one of them. The championship round and the relegation play-out keep full regular-season points. The Europe play-off between the clubs ranked fifth to eighth starts with half, which is exactly why the gap between fourth and fifth in the regular season is so expensive.

How many teams are relegated in Greece?

Two. The six clubs finishing ninth to 14th in the regular season enter a play-out of ten matches each, keeping their existing points, and the bottom two of that group are relegated to Super League 2. Survival is settled over 36 games, not 26.

▸How does the supercomputer work?

Every remaining fixture is simulated with a Poisson model: each club gets an attack rating and a defence rating from the goals it has scored and conceded this season, and the expected goals of a match come from combining one side's attack with the other's defence, plus a moderate home advantage.

Before a ball is kicked the model does not start from zero: each club begins with a prior strength built from last season's finish and the market value of its squad, with the tails capped so no extreme is absurd. That starting point hands over weight to real results as they arrive, and by around matchday ten only the actual goals are talking.

The remaining season is played 10,000 times in a separate browser process, so the page never freezes. The title, top-four, top-six and relegation percentages are simply how often each outcome happened across those 10,000 seasons, and each club's points range covers the central 90% of its simulated finishes.

What the model does not know: injuries, transfers, sanctions, European fixtures or motivation. It uses goals and only goals — which is why it is in beta.