Supercomputer · Super League

Plays the rest of the season 10,000 times and shows how often each club wins.

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Switzerland's 33-then-5 season, and what the split does

Twelve clubs meet three times each across 33 matchdays, then the league divides into a championship group and a relegation group of six. Each club plays five more games inside its own group, taking the season to 38 matches. Points earned in the first phase carry over untouched, with no halving and no reset.

That makes the top-six cut the real hinge of the campaign: finish seventh after 33 rounds and the title and the European places are gone regardless of form. Only the bottom club is relegated automatically, while 11th plays a two-legged play-off against a Challenge League side for its place.

Swiss Super League projection: common questions

How does the Swiss Super League split work?

After 33 matchdays the table divides. The top six form a championship group and the bottom six a relegation group, and each club plays the other five in its group once more. That is five extra matches and 38 in total, with the groups sealed at the point of the split.

Are points halved after the Swiss split?

No. Unlike some split-format leagues, Switzerland carries every point across in full. A ten-point lead built over the first 33 matchdays is still a ten-point lead on the opening day of the championship group, which makes the first phase far more decisive than in a halved system.

How many teams are relegated in Switzerland?

One directly, the club finishing bottom of the relegation group. The 11th-placed side then contests a two-legged relegation play-off against a Challenge League club, so a second team can still lose its Super League status after the regular calendar has finished.

▸How does the supercomputer work?

Every remaining fixture is simulated with a Poisson model: each club gets an attack rating and a defence rating from the goals it has scored and conceded this season, and the expected goals of a match come from combining one side's attack with the other's defence, plus a moderate home advantage.

Before a ball is kicked the model does not start from zero: each club begins with a prior strength built from last season's finish and the market value of its squad, with the tails capped so no extreme is absurd. That starting point hands over weight to real results as they arrive, and by around matchday ten only the actual goals are talking.

The remaining season is played 10,000 times in a separate browser process, so the page never freezes. The title, top-four, top-six and relegation percentages are simply how often each outcome happened across those 10,000 seasons, and each club's points range covers the central 90% of its simulated finishes.

What the model does not know: injuries, transfers, sanctions, European fixtures or motivation. It uses goals and only goals — which is why it is in beta.