Supercomputer · Liga MX

Plays the rest of the season 10,000 times and shows how often each club wins.

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Liga MX: 17 matchdays, eight into the Liguilla, nobody down

A Liga MX tournament is short. Eighteen clubs play 17 matchdays, and the table exists to answer one question: which eight reach the Liguilla. From the Apertura 2026 the Play-In has been scrapped, so the top eight go straight into the quarter-finals and everyone from ninth downwards is finished for the tournament.

There is no relegation to project either. The league wrote promotion and relegation out of its 2026/27 competition rules permanently and also removed the fines that the worst performers in the percentage table used to pay. The cociente table survives purely as a statistic, with no sporting or financial consequence attached to it.

Liga MX projection: frequently asked

Is there relegation in Liga MX?

No. The drop to Liga de Expansión has been suspended since 2020, and the 2026/27 competition rules removed it permanently along with the fines previously charged to the bottom clubs in the percentage table. Finishing last now carries no sporting or financial penalty at all.

What happened to the Play-In?

It was abolished from the Apertura 2026 onwards. The clubs that lose out are ninth and tenth, who had a route in and now have none. The eight qualifiers from the 17-match regular phase go directly into the quarter-finals, pairing first against eighth, second against seventh and so on.

Does the projection cover the Liguilla?

No. The model simulates the remaining regular-phase fixtures and reports each club's chance of finishing in the top eight, along with a projected points range and likely seeding. The two-legged knockout rounds that actually decide the champion are not part of the simulation.

▸How does the supercomputer work?

Every remaining fixture is simulated with a Poisson model: each club gets an attack rating and a defence rating from the goals it has scored and conceded this season, and the expected goals of a match come from combining one side's attack with the other's defence, plus a moderate home advantage.

Before a ball is kicked the model does not start from zero: each club begins with a prior strength built from last season's finish and the market value of its squad, with the tails capped so no extreme is absurd. That starting point hands over weight to real results as they arrive, and by around matchday ten only the actual goals are talking.

The remaining season is played 10,000 times in a separate browser process, so the page never freezes. The title, top-four, top-six and relegation percentages are simply how often each outcome happened across those 10,000 seasons, and each club's points range covers the central 90% of its simulated finishes.

What the model does not know: injuries, transfers, sanctions, European fixtures or motivation. It uses goals and only goals — which is why it is in beta.