Supercomputer · LigaPro

Plays the rest of the season 10,000 times and shows how often each club wins.

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LigaPro: 30 rounds that only sort clubs into three brackets

Ecuador's league no longer ends with a final between two stage winners. Sixteen clubs play a 30-round initial phase, and that table's only job is to split them three ways: the top six into a title hexagonal, seventh to tenth into a cuadrangular chasing a Sudamericana place, and the bottom six into a survival hexagonal.

Read the projection accordingly. Finishing first in the initial phase is a strong position rather than a trophy, because the champion is settled in the hexagonal that follows. Relegation works the same way: the two lowest-placed clubs in the bottom-six group go down to Serie B, so only those six can be relegated at all.

LigaPro: how the 2026 format works

How is the Ecuadorian champion decided in 2026?

By the top-six hexagonal that follows the 30-round initial phase, not by a final between two stage winners. The old two-stage-plus-final system is gone. The six qualifiers play each other home and away, and whoever finishes top of that group is LigaPro champion.

Which teams can be relegated from LigaPro Serie A?

Only the six clubs that finish 11th to 16th in the initial phase. They play a separate hexagonal and the two lowest-placed at the end of it drop to Serie B. Finishing tenth is therefore worth far more than one place, because it removes relegation risk completely.

What do the continental columns mean for an Ecuadorian club?

Libertadores and Sudamericana, not Champions League or Europa League. Ecuador's continental berths are handed out in the title hexagonal and the seventh-to-tenth cuadrangular rather than off the 30-round table, so a high projected finish is best read as a strong chance of reaching the bracket where those places are decided.

▸How does the supercomputer work?

Every remaining fixture is simulated with a Poisson model: each club gets an attack rating and a defence rating from the goals it has scored and conceded this season, and the expected goals of a match come from combining one side's attack with the other's defence, plus a moderate home advantage.

Before a ball is kicked the model does not start from zero: each club begins with a prior strength built from last season's finish and the market value of its squad, with the tails capped so no extreme is absurd. That starting point hands over weight to real results as they arrive, and by around matchday ten only the actual goals are talking.

The remaining season is played 10,000 times in a separate browser process, so the page never freezes. The title, top-four, top-six and relegation percentages are simply how often each outcome happened across those 10,000 seasons, and each club's points range covers the central 90% of its simulated finishes.

What the model does not know: injuries, transfers, sanctions, European fixtures or motivation. It uses goals and only goals — which is why it is in beta.