Supercomputer · LaLiga

Plays the rest of the season 10,000 times and shows how often each club wins.

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Reading the LaLiga projection

Twenty clubs, 38 matchdays, one uninterrupted table. The top four finishers go straight into the Champions League league phase, fifth carries a Europa League place and sixth a Conference League play-off berth. The Copa del Rey winner also collects a Europa League ticket, which nudges those thresholds down a place when the cup goes to a club already qualified.

One caveat on the Champions League column. Spain took one of UEFA's two European Performance Spots for 2026/27, which is how a fifth Spanish side reached the league phase. Whether that repeats depends on how Spanish clubs fare in Europe this season, not on the domestic table, so the projection treats four as the guaranteed number.

LaLiga projection: common questions

How many teams are relegated from LaLiga?

Three. The clubs finishing 18th, 19th and 20th drop to the Segunda Division, and there is no play-off to reprieve any of them. With 20 teams in the division, that means 15 per cent of the league changes over on sporting merit every season.

Is fourth place enough for the Champions League in Spain?

Yes. Spain's first four places all lead into the Champions League league phase, with no qualifying rounds to negotiate. A fifth berth exists only when Spain earns one of UEFA's two European Performance Spots, which is decided by the coefficient race rather than by LaLiga itself.

What separates two LaLiga clubs level on points?

Head-to-head record comes first in Spain, not overall goal difference. Points from the two meetings between the tied clubs are compared, then the goal difference in those matches, and only after that does the season-long goal difference come into play. It matters whenever a simulated finish is tight.

▸How does the supercomputer work?

Every remaining fixture is simulated with a Poisson model: each club gets an attack rating and a defence rating from the goals it has scored and conceded this season, and the expected goals of a match come from combining one side's attack with the other's defence, plus a moderate home advantage.

Before a ball is kicked the model does not start from zero: each club begins with a prior strength built from last season's finish and the market value of its squad, with the tails capped so no extreme is absurd. That starting point hands over weight to real results as they arrive, and by around matchday ten only the actual goals are talking.

The remaining season is played 10,000 times in a separate browser process, so the page never freezes. The title, top-four, top-six and relegation percentages are simply how often each outcome happened across those 10,000 seasons, and each club's points range covers the central 90% of its simulated finishes.

What the model does not know: injuries, transfers, sanctions, European fixtures or motivation. It uses goals and only goals — which is why it is in beta.