Supercomputer · Conference League

Plays the rest of the season 10,000 times and shows how often each club wins.

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What the Conference League projection is actually measuring

The Conference League uses the same 36-club table as UEFA's other competitions, but only six matchdays rather than eight. That shorter run is the defining feature of this projection: with a quarter fewer games and a maximum of 18 points on offer, one result moves a club further, and the simulated ranges stay wide deep into the winter.

The bands themselves are unchanged. The top eight go straight to the round of 16, ninth to 24th into a February play-off, and 25th to 36th are eliminated. Winning it brings a Europa League place for the season after, which for clubs from mid-sized associations is often worth more than anything their domestic league can deliver.

Conference League: what readers ask

Why does the Conference League play six matches instead of eight?

UEFA set the shorter league phase to keep the calendar workable for clubs that have already played several qualifying rounds to get here. Each team faces six different opponents, three at home and three away, and the whole table is settled across those six matchdays.

What does the Conference League winner get?

Entry to the next season's Europa League league phase, unless the club has already qualified for the Champions League or Europa League through its domestic finish. It is the one route in this competition that guarantees a step upward, which is why reaching the knockout rounds matters so much.

Does the model know which clubs are prioritising their league?

No. It works from results, previous-season strength and squad value, never from stated intentions or expected team sheets. In a competition where some entrants rotate heavily and others build their season around it, that limitation is worth holding in mind alongside the percentages.

▸How does the supercomputer work?

Every remaining fixture is simulated with a Poisson model: each club gets an attack rating and a defence rating from the goals it has scored and conceded this season, and the expected goals of a match come from combining one side's attack with the other's defence, plus a moderate home advantage.

Before a ball is kicked the model does not start from zero: each club begins with a prior strength built from last season's finish and the market value of its squad, with the tails capped so no extreme is absurd. That starting point hands over weight to real results as they arrive, and by around matchday ten only the actual goals are talking.

The remaining season is played 10,000 times in a separate browser process, so the page never freezes. The title, top-four, top-six and relegation percentages are simply how often each outcome happened across those 10,000 seasons, and each club's points range covers the central 90% of its simulated finishes.

What the model does not know: injuries, transfers, sanctions, European fixtures or motivation. It uses goals and only goals — which is why it is in beta.