Supercomputer · Primera División

Plays the rest of the season 10,000 times and shows how often each club wins.

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Liga de Primera: a clean 30-round table with a new cup beside it

Chile keeps things simpler than most of its neighbours. Sixteen clubs, 30 rounds from February to December, most points wins — no Apertura, no Clausura, no cuadrangulares at the end. The title column here is a genuine title probability, and the bottom two of that same table are relegated to Primera B.

The continental places are the moving part. Alongside the league, 2026 introduced the Copa de la Liga, a knockout competition for the same 16 clubs whose winner takes one of Chile's Libertadores berths. A mid-table side can therefore claim a place the standings would never have given it, leaving one fewer to filter down the table.

Chilean top flight: common questions

How many teams are relegated in Chile?

Two. The clubs finishing 15th and 16th of the 30-round table drop to Primera B for the following year, with no play-off and no points average. With only 16 clubs each side plays 30 games, so there is less room to recover from a bad start than in a 38-game league.

Is the Chilean title decided by a play-off?

No. Whoever has the most points after 30 matchdays is champion, which is why this page shows a title probability rather than a 1st-place one. Along with Brazil, Chile is one of the few South American leagues to settle its championship on a single season-long table.

What is the Copa de la Liga and does it change these numbers?

It is a new competition launched in 2026, contested by the same 16 Primera División clubs in four groups of four followed by two-legged semi-finals and a final. Its winner earns a 2027 Libertadores place. The simulator models only the league table, not the cup.

▸How does the supercomputer work?

Every remaining fixture is simulated with a Poisson model: each club gets an attack rating and a defence rating from the goals it has scored and conceded this season, and the expected goals of a match come from combining one side's attack with the other's defence, plus a moderate home advantage.

Before a ball is kicked the model does not start from zero: each club begins with a prior strength built from last season's finish and the market value of its squad, with the tails capped so no extreme is absurd. That starting point hands over weight to real results as they arrive, and by around matchday ten only the actual goals are talking.

The remaining season is played 10,000 times in a separate browser process, so the page never freezes. The title, top-four, top-six and relegation percentages are simply how often each outcome happened across those 10,000 seasons, and each club's points range covers the central 90% of its simulated finishes.

What the model does not know: injuries, transfers, sanctions, European fixtures or motivation. It uses goals and only goals — which is why it is in beta.