Supercomputer · Bundesliga

Plays the rest of the season 10,000 times and shows how often each club wins.

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How the Bundesliga table converts into Europe and survival

Eighteen clubs and 34 matches mean twelve fewer points on offer than in Spain or Italy, so Bundesliga projections naturally sit in a lower range and the gaps between clubs compress. The first four places go to the Champions League league phase, fifth to the Europa League and sixth to the Conference League play-off round.

The bottom of the table is where German football differs. Only 17th and 18th are relegated outright. Sixteenth enters the Relegation, a two-legged tie against the third-placed club in 2. Bundesliga, and those matches only come into existence once both divisions have finished, which puts them outside anything the fixture list can simulate.

Bundesliga projection: common questions

How many clubs are relegated from the Bundesliga?

Two automatically, the sides finishing 17th and 18th. The 16th-placed club then plays a two-legged Relegation play-off against the team that finished third in 2. Bundesliga, with the winner taking the last place in next season's top flight. So up to three can go.

Is a 16th-place finish safe in the Bundesliga?

No, and it is not a relegation either. It is an unresolved position: the club still has two knockout matches to play against a promotion-chasing second-tier side. Treat a projected 16th as a coin toss rather than as survival, because the play-off is decided after the league season.

Why are Bundesliga points totals lower than in other big leagues?

Because there are only 18 clubs. Each team plays 34 league matches rather than 38, so there are 102 points available instead of 114. Champions and relegated clubs alike finish on totals roughly a tenth lower than their counterparts in the 20-team leagues.

▸How does the supercomputer work?

Every remaining fixture is simulated with a Poisson model: each club gets an attack rating and a defence rating from the goals it has scored and conceded this season, and the expected goals of a match come from combining one side's attack with the other's defence, plus a moderate home advantage.

Before a ball is kicked the model does not start from zero: each club begins with a prior strength built from last season's finish and the market value of its squad, with the tails capped so no extreme is absurd. That starting point hands over weight to real results as they arrive, and by around matchday ten only the actual goals are talking.

The remaining season is played 10,000 times in a separate browser process, so the page never freezes. The title, top-four, top-six and relegation percentages are simply how often each outcome happened across those 10,000 seasons, and each club's points range covers the central 90% of its simulated finishes.

What the model does not know: injuries, transfers, sanctions, European fixtures or motivation. It uses goals and only goals — which is why it is in beta.