Supercomputer · WSL

Plays the rest of the season 10,000 times and shows how often each club wins.

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The WSL supercomputer after the expansion to 14

The Women's Super League is a different competition this season: 14 clubs rather than 12, and 26 matches rather than 22. Every projected points total on this page therefore comes from a longer season than any previous WSL campaign, so benchmarks carried over from the 12-team years no longer mean what they used to.

The title is settled on the table alone, with no play-off, and three English clubs go through to the Women's Champions League. At the bottom, 14th is relegated automatically while 13th plays the WSL 2 runner-up for its place, so the danger zone effectively covers two positions rather than one.

WSL projection: frequently asked

How many teams are relegated from the WSL?

One automatically, the club finishing 14th, plus a second place decided by a play-off between 13th and the WSL 2 runner-up. The WSL 2 champion goes up directly. Because the relegation column reports the automatic place, 13th carries real risk that the number alone does not show.

Why did the WSL expand to 14 teams?

Clubs voted for the change in 2025 and the FA approved it for 2026/27, with WSL 2 staying at 12 and turning fully professional. As a one-off for the expansion season, two clubs came up automatically and a third place was settled by a play-off between WSL 2's third-placed side and the bottom club in the WSL.

Does the model account for European fixtures?

No. It projects domestic results only, with no adjustment for midweek European trips, international windows or squad depth. For the English clubs competing in the Women's Champions League, that is worth remembering when reading how tight their projected points ranges look.

▸How does the supercomputer work?

Every remaining fixture is simulated with a Poisson model: each club gets an attack rating and a defence rating from the goals it has scored and conceded this season, and the expected goals of a match come from combining one side's attack with the other's defence, plus a moderate home advantage.

Before a ball is kicked the model does not start from zero: each club begins with a prior strength built from last season's finish and the market value of its squad, with the tails capped so no extreme is absurd. That starting point hands over weight to real results as they arrive, and by around matchday ten only the actual goals are talking.

The remaining season is played 10,000 times in a separate browser process, so the page never freezes. The title, top-four, top-six and relegation percentages are simply how often each outcome happened across those 10,000 seasons, and each club's points range covers the central 90% of its simulated finishes.

What the model does not know: injuries, transfers, sanctions, European fixtures or motivation. It uses goals and only goals — which is why it is in beta.