Supercomputer · Süper Lig

Plays the rest of the season 10,000 times and shows how often each club wins.

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Super Lig: 18 clubs, three going down

Turkey runs one of the harsher bottom ends in Europe. Eighteen clubs, 34 matches, and three relegation places: 16th, 17th and 18th all drop to the TFF 1. Lig with no play-off to soften the fall. One club in six goes down each year, so the relegation column carries more weight here than in most leagues.

The top is narrower than the bottom is wide. Six different clubs have won the championship since 1959. Only the champion goes straight into the Champions League league phase; the runner-up starts in the third qualifying round, while third and fourth take Europa League and Conference League qualifying places.

Super Lig projection: common questions

How many teams are relegated from the Super Lig?

Three. The bottom three of the 18-team table go down to the TFF 1. Lig directly, with three clubs promoted from the second tier to replace them. There is no relegation play-off and no reprieve, so the projected bottom three is the relegation forecast in full.

Does the Turkish champion qualify directly for the Champions League?

The champion enters the league phase without playing a qualifying tie. The runner-up is not so lucky: they start in the third qualifying round, meaning two knockout ties in July and August before reaching the same stage, with a Europa League consolation if they lose.

Which clubs have won the Turkish league?

Six in total since the competition began in 1959. Galatasaray lead the roll of honour, followed by Fenerbahce, Besiktas and Trabzonspor, with Bursaspor and Basaksehir each winning once. That history is why the title probabilities cluster tightly around a small group of clubs.

▸How does the supercomputer work?

Every remaining fixture is simulated with a Poisson model: each club gets an attack rating and a defence rating from the goals it has scored and conceded this season, and the expected goals of a match come from combining one side's attack with the other's defence, plus a moderate home advantage.

Before a ball is kicked the model does not start from zero: each club begins with a prior strength built from last season's finish and the market value of its squad, with the tails capped so no extreme is absurd. That starting point hands over weight to real results as they arrive, and by around matchday ten only the actual goals are talking.

The remaining season is played 10,000 times in a separate browser process, so the page never freezes. The title, top-four, top-six and relegation percentages are simply how often each outcome happened across those 10,000 seasons, and each club's points range covers the central 90% of its simulated finishes.

What the model does not know: injuries, transfers, sanctions, European fixtures or motivation. It uses goals and only goals — which is why it is in beta.